Prohibited

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$35.90

51.28 coins

Advertised RTP

90.92%

EV $32.64 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d

93.45%

631 openings, odds method

Variance

1.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

21.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

61.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

76 openings · below min

7 days

91.95%±8.28545 openings

30 days

93.45%±7.69631 openings

since tracking started

93.45%±7.69631 openings

55.5%78.8%102.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	76	78.53%±22.4	—	odds
7d	545	91.95%±8.28	+0.2σ	odds
30d	631	93.45%±7.69	+0.6σ	odds
All	631	93.45%±7.69	+0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 631 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 14,286	$1,100 1,571 coins	0.2%	0	0.0	—
USP-S \| Target Acquired (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,887	$289 413 coins	0.5%	0	0.3	—
AUG \| Midnight Lily (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 400	$288 412 coins	2.2%	3	1.6	1.90×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Blackbook (Field-Tested)gloves · rare	1 in 182	$231 330 coins	3.9%	3	3.5	0.86×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 125	$159 227 coins	3.9%	4	5.0	0.79×
AK-47 \| Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$118 169 coins	3.6%	8	6.3	1.27×
★ Driver Gloves \| Brocade Crane (Battle-Scarred)gloves · rare	1 in 100	$111 159 coins	3.4%	9	6.3	1.43×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Hellfire (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 60	$104 149 coins	5.3%	12	10.5	1.15×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 53	$91.70 131 coins	5.3%	16	11.9	1.35×
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 43	$78.40 112 coins	5.5%	15	14.5	1.03×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 36	$71.40 102 coins	6.0%	12	17.4	0.69×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 36	$63.32 90.46 coins	5.3%	15	17.4	0.86×
XM1014 \| Red Leather (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 15	$45.86 65.52 coins	9.6%	41	42.9	0.96×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	16.8%	$36.25 51.78 coins	18.7%	97	106.0	0.92×
MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	16.8%	$27.05 38.65 coins	13.9%	122	106.0	1.15×
XM1014 \| Fallout Warning (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	16.8%	$9.43 13.47 coins	4.9%	132	106.0	1.25×
Souvenir FAMAS \| Styx (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	27.8%	$9.16 13.08 coins	7.8%	142	175.4	0.81×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Souvenir FAMAS | Styx (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$35.9051.28 coins$9.1613.08 coins0.26x1m

XM1014 | Fallout Warning (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$35.9051.28 coins$9.4313.47 coins0.26x1m

MAC-10 | Propaganda (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedBiO-HaZarD$35.9051.28 coins$27.0538.65 coins0.75x1m

MAC-10 | Propaganda (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified$35.9051.28 coins$27.0538.65 coins0.75x2m

XM1014 | Fallout Warning (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$35.9051.28 coins$9.4313.47 coins0.26x2m

Souvenir FAMAS | Styx (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$35.9051.28 coins$9.1613.08 coins0.26x2m

XM1014 | Fallout Warning (Field-Tested)weapon · industrialBiO-HaZarD$35.9051.28 coins$9.4313.47 coins0.26x2m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:26 UTC	$35.90	90.92%	17
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$35.99	90.92%	17
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$36.92	90.90%	17
5 Nov, 10:39 UTC	$37.35	90.90%	17
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$37.37	90.91%	17

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 1.9%classified 41.4%restricted 28.1%rare 1.6%covert 3.6%mil spec 6.8%industrial 16.8%best hit —