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Projection

A case on CSGORoll (5%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$264.35
378 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $240.33 from 15 items
Observed RTP, 30d
76.84%
874 openings, odds method
Variance
45.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 99
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
92 openings · below min
7 days
57.51%±53.26612 openings
30 days
76.84%±44.55874 openings
since tracking started
76.84%±44.55874 openings
-0.5%76.0%152.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h9214.46%±137.5—odds
7d61257.51%±53.3−1.2σodds
30d87476.84%±44.5−0.6σodds
All87476.84%±44.5−0.6σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 874 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Factory New) 4x IBP (Holo) (Factory New)weapon · legendary1 in 10,000$70K 100,000 coins2.9%00.1—
AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear) 4x Titan (Holo) (Minimal Wear)weapon · legendary1 in 1,000$28K 40,000 coins11.7%10.9—
Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary1 in 250$17.6K 25,125 coins29.3%33.50.86×
M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband1 in 200$7,000 10,000 coins14.6%24.40.46×
Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) 4x IBP (Holo) (Factory New)weapon · legendary1 in 200$6,650 9,500 coins13.8%54.41.14×
★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald1 in 200$5,978 8,540 coins12.4%54.41.14×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 200$2,450 3,500 coins5.1%34.40.69×
AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 200$2,069 2,955 coins4.3%14.40.23×
★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 200$1,407 2,010 coins2.9%14.40.23×
★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 200$628 897 coins1.3%84.41.83×
★ Specialist Gloves | Fade (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary1 in 101$409 584 coins1.7%98.71.04×
Tec-9 | Groundwater (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer20.0%$0.03 0.05 coins0.0%191174.81.09×
AUG | Contractor (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer25.0%$0.03 0.04 coins0.0%201218.50.92×
MP7 | Army Recon (Minimal Wear)weapon · #77777725.0%$0.02 0.03 coins0.0%213218.50.97×
UMP-45 | Urban DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer25.0%<$0.01 0.01 coins0.0%231218.51.06×
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear) 4x Titan (Holo) (Minimal Wear)weapon · legendary$265379 coins$28K40,000 coins105.7x
Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$264378 coins$17.6K25,125 coins66.53x
Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$265379 coins$17.6K25,125 coins66.37x
Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$265379 coins$17.6K25,125 coins66.37x
Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$265379 coins$17.6K25,125 coins66.37x
M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband$265379 coins$6,9169,880 coins26.10x
M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband$265379 coins$6,9169,880 coins26.10x
M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband$265379 coins$6,9169,880 coins26.10x
Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) 4x IBP (Holo) (Factory New)weapon · legendarykick/johncs LIVE$264378 coins$6,6509,500 coins25.16x
Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) 4x IBP (Holo) (Factory New)weapon · legendary$264378 coins$6,6509,500 coins25.16x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
AUG | Contractor (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer$264378 coins$0.030.05 coins0.00x
Tec-9 | Groundwater (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer$264378 coins$0.030.05 coins0.00x
AUG | Contractor (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer$264378 coins$0.030.05 coins0.00x
AUG | Contractor (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumersasz$264378 coins$0.030.05 coins0.00x
Tec-9 | Groundwater (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer$264378 coins$0.030.05 coins0.00x
UMP-45 | Urban DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$264378 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
MP7 | Army Recon (Minimal Wear)weapon · #777777$264378 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x
Tec-9 | Groundwater (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer$264378 coins$0.030.05 coins0.00x
UMP-45 | Urban DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumersasz$264378 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
AUG | Contractor (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer$264378 coins$0.030.05 coins0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC$26490.91%15
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$26590.91%15
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 2.0%contraband 0.5%covert 2.0%extraordinary 0.5%consumer 70.0%#777777 25.0%best hit $28K (105.7x)