Prospector
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.00
1.43 coins
Advertised RTP
91.14%
EV $0.91 from 13 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.97%
37K openings, odds method
Variance
8.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 18
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
83.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 37.1K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Tec-9 | Cracked Opal (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil specCARRITOS MAISTER$1.001.43 coins$0.190.27 coins0.19x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 91.14%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $1.00 | 91.14% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $1.01 | 90.77% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $1.01 | 90.62% | 13 |
| 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $0.98 | 91.17% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $0.98 | 91.21% | 13 |
| 3 Nov, 07:26 UTC | $0.98 | 91.13% | 13 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.99 | 90.70% | 13 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 5.7%covert 0.3%restricted 17.0%mil spec 27.0%industrial 19.0%consumer 31.0%best hit —