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Psycho

A case on CSGORoll (5%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$176.23
252 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $160.20 from 13 items
Observed RTP, 30d
98.54%
3,393 openings, odds method
Variance
37.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 111
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
79.25%±42.90785 openings
7 days
99.59%±23.062,703 openings
30 days
98.54%±20.563,393 openings
since tracking started
98.54%±20.563,393 openings
35.5%79.5%123.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h78579.25%±42.9−0.5σodds
7d2,70399.59%±23.1+0.7σodds
30d3,39398.54%±20.6+0.7σodds
All3,39398.54%±20.6+0.7σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,395 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Factory New)gloves · legendary1 in 2,000$27.5K 39,250 coins8.6%11.70.59×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 667$11.9K 17,000 coins11.1%75.11.37×
AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 400$9,856 14,080 coins15.4%118.51.30×
★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald1 in 1,000$5,978 8,540 coins3.7%43.41.18×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendary1 in 286$5,684 8,120 coins12.4%1311.91.09×
M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contraband1 in 200$5,156 7,365 coins16.1%1517.00.88×
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · legendary1 in 167$1,928 2,755 coins7.2%1820.40.88×
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 21 in 100$1,639 2,341 coins10.2%4334.01.27×
M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)weapon · legendary1 in 100$1,369 1,955 coins8.5%3634.01.06×
AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 100$1,067 1,524 coins6.7%3834.01.12×
P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer35.0%$0.02 0.03 coins0.0%1,2431188.31.05×
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer30.0%$0.01 0.02 coins0.0%9701018.50.95×
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer30.0%<$0.01 0.01 coins0.0%9961018.50.98×
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Factory New)gloves · legendarym1chi$177252 coins$27.5K39,250 coins155.6x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$176252 coins$11.9K17,000 coins67.53x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$176252 coins$11.9K17,000 coins67.53x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$176252 coins$11.9K17,000 coins67.53x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$177252 coins$11.9K17,000 coins67.39x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$177252 coins$11.9K17,000 coins67.39x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$177252 coins$11.9K17,000 coins67.39x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$177252 coins$11.9K17,000 coins67.39x
AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$176252 coins$9,85614,080 coins55.93x
AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$176252 coins$9,85614,080 coins55.93x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$176252 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x
P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$176252 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$176252 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$176252 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerKickerrrrrrrr$176252 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$176252 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$176252 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x
P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerKickerrrrrrrr$176252 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$176252 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$176252 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
9 Nov, 08:05 UTC$17690.91%13
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC$17690.91%13
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$17790.91%13
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 2.0%covert 2.5%contraband 0.5%consumer 95.0%best hit $27.5K (155.6x)