Psychotic

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$85.93

123 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $78.12 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d

81.96%

105 openings, odds method

Variance

2.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 10

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

83 openings · below min

30 days

81.96%±32.82105 openings

since tracking started

81.96%±32.82105 openings

48.5%86.5%124.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	83	86.86%±36.9	—	odds
30d	105	81.96%±32.8	−0.5σ	odds
All	105	81.96%±32.8	−0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 105 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 1,515	$2,895 4,135 coins	2.4%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Medusa (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,064	$1,775 2,535 coins	2.1%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 435	$952 1,360 coins	2.8%	0	0.2	—
MP7 \| Whiteout (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 222	$820 1,171 coins	4.7%	1	0.5	—
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 104	$473 676 coins	5.8%	1	1.0	0.99×
M4A4 \| Daybreak (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 65	$454 648 coins	9.0%	3	1.6	1.84×
M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 59	$377 539 coins	8.2%	1	1.8	0.56×
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 43	$292 417 coins	8.6%	1	2.4	0.41×
Dual Berettas \| Duelist (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 40	$219 313 coins	7.0%	2	2.6	0.76×
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Night (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 33	$167 239 coins	6.4%	3	3.1	0.95×
USP-S \| Road Rash (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 26	$130 185 coins	6.3%	3	4.0	0.75×
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 26	$122 175 coins	6.0%	6	4.0	1.50×
UMP-45 \| Minotaur's Labyrinth (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 25	$92.40 132 coins	4.7%	0	4.2	0.00×
Souvenir M4A4 \| Urban DDPAT (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · industrial	1 in 21	$78.40 112 coins	4.7%	4	4.9	0.81×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 20	$63.25 90.36 coins	4.0%	1	5.1	0.19×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 18	$59.74 85.34 coins	4.2%	7	5.8	1.21×
M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$30.74 43.91 coins	2.3%	8	6.2	1.29×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 12	$28.43 40.61 coins	3.0%	11	8.5	1.29×
G3SG1 \| Violet Murano (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	11.2%	$19.98 28.54 coins	2.9%	11	11.8	0.93×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Shattered (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	15.7%	$12.23 17.47 coins	2.5%	16	16.5	0.97×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Slate (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	19.5%	$9.44 13.48 coins	2.4%	26	20.5	1.27×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Medusa (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$86.41123 coins$1,7782,540 coins20.58x8d

MP7 | Whiteout (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$85.93123 coins$8201,171 coins9.54x1d

AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New)weapon · covertcoco$86.62124 coins$500715 coins5.78x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP7 | Whiteout (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$85.93123 coins$8201,171 coins9.54x1d

G3SG1 | Violet Murano (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec$85.93123 coins$19.9828.54 coins0.23x1d

USP-S | Road Rash (Factory New)weapon · restricted$85.93123 coins$130185 coins1.51x1d

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Liquidation (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · rare$85.93123 coins$28.4340.61 coins0.33x1d

M4A1-S | Control Panel (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$85.93123 coins$30.7443.91 coins0.36x1d

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Black Laminate (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covertmeÇa$85.93123 coins$122175 coins1.43x1d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Slate (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedberg$85.93123 coins$9.4413.48 coins0.11x1d

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Liquidation (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · rare$85.93123 coins$28.4340.61 coins0.33x1d

M4A4 | Daybreak (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$85.93123 coins$454648 coins5.28x1d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Slate (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$85.93123 coins$9.4413.48 coins0.11x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 20:11 UTC	$85.93	90.91%	21
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$85.53	90.91%	21
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$85.76	90.91%	21
6 Nov, 23:09 UTC	$86.60	90.91%	21
3 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$86.62	90.91%	21
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$86.41	90.91%	21

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.1%covert 18.5%mil spec 31.4%restricted 29.0%classified 8.2%industrial 4.7%rare 8.1%best hit $1,778 (20.58x)