Psyop
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$518.21
740 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $471.10 from 26 items
Observed RTP, 30d
38.69%
46 openings, odds method
Variance
20.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 42
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 46 openings and 1.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 46 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$525750 coins$2,1703,100 coins4.14x
★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · epicv1adislav_lets$525750 coins$1,2321,760 coins2.35x
★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$525750 coins$1,2241,748 coins2.33x
★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$518740 coins$1,1421,632 coins2.20x
★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinaryKickerrrrrrrr$518740 coins$1,1421,632 coins2.20x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$518740 coins$1,1421,632 coins2.20x
★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinaryKickerrrrrrrr$518740 coins$1,1421,632 coins2.20x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $518 | 90.91% | 26 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $525 | 90.91% | 26 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 1.5%extraordinary 1.9%remarkable 0.1%covert 8.5%contraband 0.4%high 1.3%epic 1.5%consumer 85.0%best hit $2,170 (4.14x)