Pumpking
A case on CSGORoll (20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$19.87
28.38 coins
Advertised RTP
90.90%
EV $18.06 from 21 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.21%
6,046 openings, odds method
Variance
3.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 12
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
83.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,062 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Incinegator (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified$19.8728.38 coins$81.90117 coins4.12x
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedBiO-HaZarD$19.8728.38 coins$12.4217.75 coins0.63x
StatTrak™ MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified$19.8728.38 coins$4.947.05 coins0.25x
StatTrak™ MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified$19.8728.38 coins$4.947.05 coins0.25x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:20 UTC | $19.87 | 90.90% | 21 |
| 10 Nov, 08:16 UTC | $19.88 | 90.92% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $19.89 | 90.92% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $19.99 | 90.91% | 21 |
| 4 Nov, 14:11 UTC | $20.04 | 90.92% | 21 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $20.04 | 90.90% | 21 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 3.7%classified 34.5%restricted 36.7%extraordinary 1.1%#eb4b4b 3.0%consumer 7.0%high 14.0%best hit —