Quantum Leap

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$10.16

14.51 coins

Advertised RTP

90.88%

EV $9.23 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.00%

19.1K openings, odds method

Variance

33.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 61

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

97.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

87.43%±25.292,023 openings

7 days

90.67%±8.9116.2K openings

30 days

89.00%±8.2219.1K openings

since tracking started

89.00%±8.2219.1K openings

61.5%87.5%113.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2,023	87.43%±25.3	−0.3σ	odds
7d	16.2K	90.67%±8.91	−0.1σ	odds
30d	19.1K	89.00%±8.22	−0.5σ	odds
All	19.1K	89.00%±8.22	−0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 19.1K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 2,000	$1,212 1,732 coins	6.6%	5	9.6	0.52×
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 1,000	$617 882 coins	6.7%	22	19.1	1.15×
AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 667	$440 628 coins	7.1%	21	28.7	0.73×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 667	$414 591 coins	6.7%	40	28.7	1.39×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 400	$414 591 coins	11.2%	50	47.8	1.05×
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 500	$400 571 coins	8.7%	37	38.3	0.97×
MP9 \| Bulldozer (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 133	$262 374 coins	21.3%	157	143.5	1.09×
★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 200	$236 337 coins	12.8%	87	95.7	0.91×
Sticker \| steel (Gold) \| Krakow 2017sticker · extraordinary	1 in 286	$218 312 coins	8.3%	43	67.0	0.64×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 200	$195 279 coins	10.6%	105	95.7	1.10×
PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	47.0%	$0.01 0.02 coins	0.1%	9,091	8993.9	1.01×
MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	50.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	9,478	9568.0	0.99×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$10.3214.74 coins$1,2241,748 coins118.6x3d

★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4FreddyCX$10.3214.74 coins$1,2241,748 coins118.6x4d

★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$10.3214.74 coins$1,2241,748 coins118.6x4d

★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$10.3214.74 coins$1,2241,748 coins118.6x5d

★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$10.3214.74 coins$1,2241,748 coins118.6x8d

★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2$10.3214.74 coins$620885 coins60.04x3d

★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2Connor Kelly$10.3214.74 coins$620885 coins60.04x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$10.1614.51 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2m

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$10.1614.51 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x2m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerEminescu$10.1614.51 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2m

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified$10.1614.51 coins$414591 coins40.73x2m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$10.1614.51 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x27m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerEmz$10.1614.51 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x27m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.88%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$10.16	90.88%	12
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$10.32	90.93%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 1.1%classified 0.8%restricted 0.8%extraordinary 0.4%consumer 97.0%best hit $1,224 (118.6x)