Quarantine
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$6.69
9.55 coins
Advertised RTP
90.92%
EV $6.08 from 23 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.16%
6,757 openings, odds method
Variance
6.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 22
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 90.94% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (78.15% – 90.17%, 6,757 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,766 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC | $6.69 | 90.92% | 23 |
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $6.71 | 90.87% | 23 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $6.71 | 90.89% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $6.71 | 90.92% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $6.78 | 90.89% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $6.79 | 90.95% | 23 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $6.78 | 90.92% | 23 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $6.78 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | $6.78 | 90.94% | 23 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $6.78 | 90.94% | 23 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $6.79 | 90.93% | 23 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 3.6%restricted 5.5%classified 3.9%extraordinary 0.5%industrial 9.2%mil spec 41.5%consumer 1.8%Rare 15.0%Uncommon 19.1%best hit —