Quickdraw
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$11.03
15.76 coins
Advertised RTP
90.88%
EV $10.03 from 15 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.14%
2,150 openings, odds method
Variance
2.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
33.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
64.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,150 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
R8 Revolver | Canal Spray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumerCekoS$11.0315.76 coins$1.221.74 coins0.11x
StatTrak™ P2000 | Acid Etched (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$11.0315.76 coins$6.389.11 coins0.58x
R8 Revolver | Canal Spray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumerJarza$11.0315.76 coins$1.221.74 coins0.11x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.88%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $11.03 | 90.88% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $10.98 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $11.14 | 90.90% | 15 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $11.16 | 90.88% | 15 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $11.17 | 90.92% | 15 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $11.33 | 90.89% | 15 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.9%restricted 31.9%industrial 2.5%classified 24.7%consumer 40.0%best hit —