Quinquennium
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$57.69
82.41 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $52.44 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
73.15%
1,251 openings, odds method
Variance
34.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 21
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,251 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 20:32 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Karambit | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Rubyhermano$57.6982.41 coins$6,8889,840 coins119.4x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Shadow Daggers | Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)knife · covertSprellarinn$57.6982.41 coins$42.1160.15 coins0.73x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $57.69 | 90.91% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $57.55 | 90.91% | 12 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $58.18 | 90.91% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 30.0%classified 55.0%consumer 15.0%best hit $6,888 (119.4x)