Rainbow Case

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$45.65

65.21 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $41.50 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.43%

284 openings, odds method

Variance

3.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

14.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

85.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

47 openings · below min

7 days

87.38%±22.36257 openings

30 days

90.43%±21.27284 openings

since tracking started

90.43%±21.27284 openings

64.0%116.8%169.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	47	116.89%±52.2	—	odds
7d	257	87.38%±22.4	−0.3σ	odds
30d	284	90.43%±21.3	−0.0σ	odds
All	284	90.43%±21.3	−0.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 284 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$1,600 2,285 coins	1.9%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · legendary	1 in 1,000	$1,299 1,855 coins	3.1%	0	0.3	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 2,000	$1,037 1,482 coins	1.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 1,000	$776 1,108 coins	1.9%	1	0.3	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 200	$427 610 coins	5.1%	2	1.4	1.41×
AUG \| Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 100	$334 477 coins	8.0%	4	2.8	1.41×
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 200	$291 416 coins	3.5%	0	1.4	0.00×
MP7 \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$146 209 coins	7.1%	5	5.7	0.88×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	10.0%	$109 155 coins	26.1%	30	28.4	1.06×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 21	$44.47 63.53 coins	5.0%	12	13.3	0.90×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	14.0%	$40.87 58.38 coins	13.8%	38	39.8	0.96×
Dual Berettas \| Emerald (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	12.0%	$26.52 37.88 coins	7.7%	32	34.1	0.94×
MAC-10 \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	15.0%	$18.43 26.33 coins	6.7%	40	42.6	0.94×
P250 \| Muertos (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	20.0%	$12.27 17.53 coins	5.9%	65	56.8	1.14×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Heat (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	20.0%	$5.94 8.49 coins	2.9%	55	56.8	0.97×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$45.6565.21 coins$7761,108 coins16.99x19h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$45.6565.21 coins$44.4763.53 coins0.97x14h

MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$45.6565.21 coins$18.4326.33 coins0.40x14h

P250 | Muertos (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$45.6565.21 coins$12.2717.53 coins0.27x14h

MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specbanditen$45.6565.21 coins$18.4326.33 coins0.40x14h

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Heat (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedNixin$45.6565.21 coins$5.948.49 coins0.13x14h

P250 | Muertos (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedPhiliacos$45.6565.21 coins$12.2717.53 coins0.27x14h

Dual Berettas | Emerald (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specBadKarma$45.6565.21 coins$26.5237.88 coins0.58x14h

MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specryfry$45.6565.21 coins$18.4326.33 coins0.40x14h

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Heat (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$45.6565.21 coins$5.948.49 coins0.13x16h

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Heat (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedRussy$45.6565.21 coins$5.948.49 coins0.13x16h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$45.65	90.91%	15
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$45.74	90.91%	15
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$46.24	90.91%	15

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 15.2%legendary 0.1%mil spec 30.0%red 10.0%classified 24.7%restricted 20.0%best hit $776 (16.99x)