Rambo

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$56.76

81.08 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $51.60 from 19 items

Observed RTP, 30d

85.98%

159 openings, odds method

Variance

2.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

14.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

74.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

8 openings · below min

7 days

81.68%±25.73151 openings

30 days

85.98%±25.06159 openings

since tracking started

85.98%±25.06159 openings

-0.5%77.0%154.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	8	40.73%±113.0	—	odds
7d	151	81.68%±25.7	−0.7σ	odds
30d	159	85.98%±25.1	−0.4σ	odds
All	159	85.98%±25.1	−0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 159 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 500	$1,100 1,572 coins	4.3%	0	0.3	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$743 1,061 coins	1.4%	0	0.2	—
★ Survival Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary	1 in 333	$511 730 coins	3.0%	1	0.5	—
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 80	$493 704 coins	11.9%	2	2.0	1.01×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 133	$384 549 coins	5.6%	2	1.2	1.68×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 100	$358 512 coins	6.9%	1	1.6	0.63×
★ Survival Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · rare	1 in 50	$160 229 coins	6.2%	2	3.2	0.63×
★ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 67	$111 159 coins	3.2%	3	2.4	1.26×
AK-47 \| Predator (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 14	$77.70 111 coins	10.5%	7	11.1	0.63×
Primeiro Tenente \| Brazilian 1st Battalionagent · distinguished	11.9%	$58.23 83.18 coins	13.4%	13	18.9	0.69×
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Unhinged (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 25	$47.36 67.65 coins	3.7%	9	6.4	1.42×
★ Survival Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 40	$45.97 65.67 coins	2.2%	5	4.0	1.26×
★ Gut Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 29	$44.56 63.65 coins	3.0%	7	5.6	1.26×
AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 11	$34.52 49.31 coins	6.0%	16	14.3	1.12×
Trapper \| Guerrilla Warfareagent · exceptional	16.0%	$27.05 38.65 coins	8.4%	29	25.4	1.14×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Mangrove (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 20	$26.67 38.1 coins	2.6%	11	8.0	1.38×
Sticker \| Lore Poison Frog (Foil)sticker · exotic	14.0%	$16.86 24.09 coins	4.6%	23	22.3	1.03×
XM1014 \| Banana Leaf (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	12.0%	$8.42 12.03 coins	2.0%	16	19.1	0.84×
Souvenir M249 \| Gator Mesh (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · industrial	1 in 13	$6.38 9.11 coins	1.0%	12	12.7	0.94×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Survival Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary$56.7681.08 coins$511730 coins9.00x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Souvenir M249 | Gator Mesh (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$56.7681.08 coins$6.389.11 coins0.11x17h

Souvenir M249 | Gator Mesh (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · industrialRussy$56.7681.08 coins$6.389.11 coins0.11x17h

Sticker | Lore Poison Frog (Foil)sticker · exotic$56.7681.08 coins$16.8624.09 coins0.30x17h

AK-47 | Predator (Factory New)weapon · industrial$56.7681.08 coins$77.70111 coins1.37x17h

Souvenir M249 | Gator Mesh (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$56.7681.08 coins$6.389.11 coins0.11x17h

★ Survival Knife | Night Stripe (Field-Tested)knife · covert$56.7681.08 coins$45.9765.67 coins0.81x17h

XM1014 | Banana Leaf (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial$56.7681.08 coins$8.4212.03 coins0.15x17h

Sticker | Lore Poison Frog (Foil)sticker · exoticRussy$56.7681.08 coins$16.8624.09 coins0.30x17h

Souvenir M249 | Gator Mesh (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$56.7681.08 coins$6.389.11 coins0.11x1d

★ Hydra Gloves | Mangrove (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary$56.7681.08 coins$26.6738.1 coins0.47x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$56.76	90.91%	19
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$58.20	90.90%	19
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$58.44	90.91%	19

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 10.8%legendary 0.3%rare 2.0%industrial 27.0%distinguished 11.9%extraordinary 9.0%mil spec 9.0%exceptional 16.0%exotic 14.0%best hit $511 (9.00x)