Real Deal
A case on CSGORoll (40%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.67
3.82 coins
Advertised RTP
90.85%
EV $2.43 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.09%
32.2K openings, odds method
Variance
1.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
21.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
60.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 32.2K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $102 146 coins | 0.4% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.93× |
| Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 80 | $18.16 25.94 coins | 9.3% | 406 | 402.5 | 1.01× |
| Desert Eagle | Directive (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $7.08 10.11 coins | 58.3% | 6,439 | 6439.2 | 1.00× |
| USP-S | Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 11 | $5.52 7.89 coins | 20.5% | 2,941 | 2897.6 | 1.01× |
| USP-S | Blueprint (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 400 | $3.91 5.58 coins | 0.4% | 75 | 80.5 | 0.93× |
| FAMAS | Valence (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 1 in 11 | $2.92 4.17 coins | 10.8% | 2,889 | 2897.6 | 1.00× |
| G3SG1 | Polar Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 20.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.1% | 6,558 | 6439.2 | 1.02× |
| Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 20.5% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.1% | 6,441 | 6597.0 | 0.98× |
| G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 20.0% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.1% | 6,444 | 6439.2 | 1.00× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.85%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $2.67 | 90.85% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $2.67 | 90.90% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $2.44 | 90.81% | 9 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.44 | 90.82% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%classified 1.3%restricted 38.0%mil spec 0.3%consumer 60.5%best hit —