Recoil

A case on CSGORoll (gloves), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$6.42

9.17 coins

Advertised RTP

90.87%

EV $5.83 from 24 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.64%

15.9K openings, odds method

Variance

10.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 13

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

85.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

88.27%±13.192,385 openings

7 days

91.12%±5.5613.8K openings

30 days

90.64%±5.1815.9K openings

since tracking started

90.64%±5.1815.9K openings

74.5%88.3%102.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2,385	88.27%±13.2	−0.4σ	odds
7d	13.8K	91.12%±5.56	+0.1σ	odds
30d	15.9K	90.64%±5.18	−0.1σ	odds
All	15.9K	90.64%±5.18	−0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15.9K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$723 1,033 coins	1.2%	1	1.6	0.63×
★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$676 966 coins	1.2%	2	1.6	1.26×
★ Hand Wraps \| CAUTION! (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 10,000	$517 739 coins	0.9%	4	1.6	2.52×
★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$455 650 coins	0.8%	1	1.6	0.63×
★ Driver Gloves \| Queen Jaguar (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,500	$370 529 coins	2.5%	8	6.4	1.26×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 5,000	$302 432 coins	1.0%	3	3.2	0.94×
★ Sport Gloves \| Scarlet Shamagh (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 5,000	$281 401 coins	1.0%	4	3.2	1.26×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$264 377 coins	0.5%	0	1.6	0.00×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Field Agent (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 5,000	$228 326 coins	0.8%	3	3.2	0.94×
★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,000	$171 244 coins	2.9%	16	15.9	1.01×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Lt. Commander (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 500	$143 204 coins	4.9%	28	31.8	0.88×
★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 500	$108 154 coins	3.7%	37	31.8	1.16×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 333	$103 147 coins	5.3%	49	47.7	1.03×
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 333	$63.18 90.26 coins	3.2%	45	47.7	0.94×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 200	$60.96 87.08 coins	5.2%	61	79.5	0.77×
AWP \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 200	$59.68 85.26 coins	5.1%	82	79.5	1.03×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 133	$44.77 63.95 coins	5.8%	117	119.3	0.98×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 100	$22.81 32.59 coins	3.9%	147	159.0	0.92×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 25	$21.23 30.33 coins	14.6%	613	636.0	0.96×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 50	$17.23 24.61 coins	5.9%	326	318.0	1.03×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Visions (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 50	$13.52 19.31 coins	4.6%	330	318.0	1.04×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 33	$12.61 18.02 coins	6.5%	498	477.0	1.04×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	40.0%	$1.60 2.29 coins	11.0%	6,269	6360.0	0.99×
StatTrak™ M249 \| Downtown (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	45.0%	$0.97 1.39 coins	7.5%	7,256	7155.0	1.01×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$6.529.32 coins$7501,071 coins114.9x6d

★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$6.529.32 coins$7261,037 coins111.3x4d

★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinaryJoseph$6.419.15 coins$676966 coins105.6x2d

★ Hand Wraps | CAUTION! (Factory New)gloves · legendary$6.529.32 coins$547782 coins83.91x3d

★ Hand Wraps | CAUTION! (Factory New)gloves · legendary$6.529.32 coins$547782 coins83.91x5d

★ Hand Wraps | CAUTION! (Factory New)gloves · legendary$6.529.32 coins$547782 coins83.91x6d

★ Hand Wraps | CAUTION! (Factory New)gloves · legendaryHosipa$6.429.17 coins$517739 coins80.59x1d

★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinaryvice.$6.529.32 coins$466666 coins71.46x4d

★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$6.529.32 coins$392560 coins60.09x2d

★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$6.529.32 coins$392560 coins60.09x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedgaygay$6.429.17 coins$0.971.39 coins0.15x2m

StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$6.429.17 coins$0.971.39 coins0.15x2m

StatTrak™ AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covertmalakasohn$6.429.17 coins$21.2330.33 coins3.31x2m

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Poly Mag (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil specTerroristi$6.429.17 coins$1.602.29 coins0.25x2m

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Poly Mag (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$6.429.17 coins$1.602.29 coins0.25x2m

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Poly Mag (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil specReettaonläski$6.429.17 coins$1.602.29 coins0.25x2m

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Poly Mag (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$6.429.17 coins$1.602.29 coins0.25x2m

StatTrak™ P250 | Visions (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$6.429.17 coins$13.5219.31 coins2.11x2m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.87%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$6.42	90.87%	24
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$6.47	90.94%	24
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$6.52	90.90%	24

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 0.9%legendary 0.0%covert 5.5%Ancient 0.5%classified 8.0%mil spec 40.0%restricted 45.0%best hit $750 (114.9x)