Record
A case on CSGORoll (25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$81.66
117 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $74.23 from 23 items
Observed RTP, 30d
174.28%
367 openings, odds method
Variance
30.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 26
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 90.91% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (118.18% – 230.38%, 367 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 367 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Aerial (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$81.66117 coins$0.240.35 coins0.00x
Dual Berettas | Dualing Dragons (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specMichał$81.66117 coins$0.320.45 coins0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $81.66 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $81.65 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $81.64 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $83.03 | 90.91% | 23 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.1%covert 23.5%contraband 0.1%epic 0.1%legendary 0.2%classified 1.0%mil spec 25.0%milspec 25.0%common 25.0%best hit $10.8K (130.4x)