Recycle

A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$16.45

23.5 coins

Advertised RTP

90.92%

EV $14.96 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.16%

1,442 openings, odds method

Variance

1.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

40.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

87.45%±17.18221 openings

7 days

85.30%±7.411,206 openings

30 days

86.16%±6.781,442 openings

since tracking started

86.16%±6.781,442 openings

69.5%87.5%105.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	221	87.45%±17.2	−0.4σ	odds
7d	1,206	85.30%±7.41	−1.5σ	odds
30d	1,442	86.16%±6.78	−1.4σ	odds
All	1,442	86.16%±6.78	−1.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,442 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 500	$207 295 coins	2.8%	2	2.9	0.69×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$167 239 coins	1.1%	1	1.4	0.69×
★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 200	$146 208 coins	4.9%	7	7.2	0.97×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 200	$115 165 coins	3.9%	4	7.2	0.55×
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 333	$108 154 coins	2.2%	2	4.3	0.46×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Field Agent (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 200	$106 152 coins	3.6%	9	7.2	1.25×
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 200	$98.00 140 coins	3.3%	6	7.2	0.83×
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$89.60 128 coins	3.0%	5	7.2	0.69×
Desert Eagle \| Pilot (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 200	$85.40 122 coins	2.9%	6	7.2	0.83×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Phase 1)weapon · covert · Phase 1	1 in 250	$64.64 92.34 coins	1.7%	4	5.8	0.69×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 100	$51.07 72.95 coins	3.4%	17	14.4	1.18×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 200	$50.96 72.8 coins	1.7%	8	7.2	1.11×
M4A1-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 40	$24.88 35.55 coins	4.2%	23	36.1	0.64×
Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommon	1 in 100	$24.75 35.35 coins	1.7%	14	14.4	0.97×
Glock-18 \| AXIA (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 100	$18.12 25.89 coins	1.2%	23	14.4	1.60×
Dual Berettas \| Demolition (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	30.0%	$13.67 19.53 coins	27.4%	419	432.6	0.97×
P250 \| Mint Kimono (Factory New)weapon · consumer	30.0%	$11.44 16.34 coins	22.9%	463	432.6	1.07×
MAC-10 \| Tatter (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	30.0%	$4.14 5.92 coins	8.3%	429	432.6	0.99×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MAC-10 | Tatter (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$16.4523.5 coins$4.145.92 coins0.25x4m

Dual Berettas | Demolition (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$16.4523.5 coins$13.6719.53 coins0.83x4m

P250 | Mint Kimono (Factory New)weapon · consumerAlienVPredatorVPlessyVFerguson$16.4523.5 coins$11.4416.34 coins0.70x4m

MAC-10 | Tatter (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedAlienVPredatorVPlessyVFerguson$16.4523.5 coins$4.145.92 coins0.25x4m

P250 | Mint Kimono (Factory New)weapon · consumer$16.4523.5 coins$11.4416.34 coins0.70x4m

Dual Berettas | Demolition (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$16.4523.5 coins$13.6719.53 coins0.83x4m

P250 | Mint Kimono (Factory New)weapon · consumer$16.4523.5 coins$11.4416.34 coins0.70x4m

MAC-10 | Tatter (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedAlienVPredatorVPlessyVFerguson$16.4523.5 coins$4.145.92 coins0.25x4m

MAC-10 | Tatter (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$16.4523.5 coins$4.145.92 coins0.25x4m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$16.45	90.92%	18
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$16.41	90.89%	18
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$16.42	90.91%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 3.2%Ancient 0.3%extraordinary 0.5%classified 3.5%restricted 60.5%uncommon 1.0%rare 1.0%consumer 30.0%best hit —