Red Alert

A case on CSGORoll (5%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$52.30

74.71 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $47.54 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d

98.83%

3,302 openings, odds method

Variance

42.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 100

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

95.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

209 openings · below min

7 days

98.51%±24.062,792 openings

30 days

98.83%±22.123,302 openings

since tracking started

98.83%±22.123,302 openings

74.0%176.0%278.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	209	189.28%±88.2	—	odds
7d	2,792	98.51%±24.1	+0.6σ	odds
30d	3,302	98.83%±22.1	+0.7σ	odds
All	3,302	98.83%±22.1	+0.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,302 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| Virtus.Pro (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 200	$4,305 6,150 coins	45.3%	22	16.5	1.33×
AWP \| The Prince (Well-Worn)weapon · legendary	1 in 200	$1,528 2,183 coins	16.1%	12	16.5	0.73×
Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 200	$1,301 1,859 coins	13.7%	12	16.5	0.73×
★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 200	$751 1,073 coins	7.9%	20	16.5	1.21×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 200	$420 600 coins	4.4%	13	16.5	0.79×
Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 200	$386 551 coins	4.1%	18	16.5	1.09×
★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 200	$348 497 coins	3.7%	17	16.5	1.03×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$126 180 coins	1.3%	17	16.5	1.03×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 200	$86.10 123 coins	0.9%	23	16.5	1.39×
★ Sport Gloves \| Bronze Morph (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 200	$65.35 93.35 coins	0.7%	24	16.5	1.45×
Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	31.0%	$1.53 2.18 coins	1.0%	1,038	1023.6	1.01×
Galil AR \| Signal (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	32.0%	$0.78 1.12 coins	0.5%	1,048	1056.6	0.99×
M4A4 \| Converter (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	32.0%	$0.73 1.05 coins	0.5%	1,038	1056.6	0.98×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$52.3074.71 coins$4,3056,150 coins82.32x1h

Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendaryKickerrrrrrrr$52.3074.71 coins$4,3056,150 coins82.32x2h

Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendaryAimbot$52.3074.71 coins$4,3056,150 coins82.32x9h

Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$52.3074.71 coins$4,3056,150 coins82.32x1d

Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$52.3074.71 coins$4,3056,150 coins82.32x2d

Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$52.3274.75 coins$4,3056,150 coins82.27x2d

Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendaryArt$52.4974.99 coins$4,3056,150 coins82.01x3d

Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$52.4974.99 coins$4,3056,150 coins82.01x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$52.3074.71 coins$1.532.18 coins0.03x51m

Galil AR | Signal (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$52.3074.71 coins$0.781.12 coins0.01x51m

Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$52.3074.71 coins$1.532.18 coins0.03x51m

Galil AR | Signal (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$52.3074.71 coins$0.781.12 coins0.01x51m

Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · mil specBismillah Alrahim Alraham$52.3074.71 coins$1.532.18 coins0.03x51m

Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$52.3074.71 coins$1.532.18 coins0.03x1h

M4A4 | Converter (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$52.3074.71 coins$0.731.05 coins0.01x1h

Galil AR | Signal (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$52.3074.71 coins$0.781.12 coins0.01x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:26 UTC	$52.30	90.91%	13
9 Nov, 00:04 UTC	$52.30	90.91%	13
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$52.32	90.91%	13
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$52.32	90.91%	13
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$52.50	90.90%	13
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$52.49	90.91%	13

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 1.0%covert 3.0%restricted 32.5%extraordinary 0.5%mil spec 63.0%best hit $4,305 (82.32x)