Red carpet
A case on CSGORoll (20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$57.81
82.58 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $52.55 from 22 items
Observed RTP, 30d
113.19%
498 openings, odds method
Variance
4.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 90.91% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (94.07% – 132.31%, 498 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 498 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$58.6783.81 coins$2,6953,850 coins45.94x
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby$58.6783.81 coins$1,5652,236 coins26.68x
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · restrictedAlienVPredatorVPlessyVFerguson$57.8182.58 coins$19.4127.73 coins0.34x
Souvenir Nova | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · consumer$57.8182.58 coins$3.454.93 coins0.06x
Sticker | Red Shades (Foil)sticker · #d32ce6AlienVPredatorVPlessyVFerguson$57.8182.58 coins$1.011.44 coins0.02x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $57.81 | 90.91% | 22 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $58.06 | 90.91% | 22 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $58.67 | 90.91% | 22 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 23.1%gold 0.0%high 0.4%remarkable 0.1%restricted 35.0%mil spec 1.0%epic 1.9%extraordinary 1.5%industrial 6.0%consumer 12.0%#d32ce6 19.0%best hit $2,695 (45.94x)