Red Light
A case on CSGORoll (30%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$7.48
10.69 coins
Advertised RTP
90.94%
EV $6.80 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.50%
5,532 openings, odds method
Variance
3.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
21.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,536 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $630 900 coins | 0.9% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 80 | $104 148 coins | 19.0% | 59 | 69.2 | 0.85× |
| MP7 | Full Stop (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 400 | $39.78 56.83 coins | 1.5% | 16 | 13.8 | 1.16× |
| Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary | 1 in 11 | $19.49 27.84 coins | 25.8% | 482 | 498.2 | 0.97× |
| P2000 | Obsidian (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.5% | $15.07 21.53 coins | 23.2% | 593 | 580.7 | 1.02× |
| Dual Berettas | Hemoglobin (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 11 | $13.02 18.6 coins | 17.2% | 482 | 498.2 | 0.97× |
| Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 20.0% | $3.00 4.29 coins | 8.8% | 1,121 | 1107.2 | 1.01× |
| Galil AR | Signal (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted | 30.0% | $0.50 0.71 coins | 2.2% | 1,696 | 1660.8 | 1.02× |
| MAC-10 | Pipe Down (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $0.45 0.65 coins | 1.3% | 1,086 | 1107.2 | 0.98× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.94%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $7.48 | 90.94% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $7.49 | 90.93% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $7.20 | 90.94% | 9 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $7.19 | 90.89% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.3%mil spec 20.3%Legendary 9.0%restricted 69.5%best hit $630 (84.19x)