Red Shadow

A case on CSGORoll (5%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$21.53

30.76 coins

Advertised RTP

90.90%

EV $19.57 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d

84.84%

13K openings, odds method

Variance

62.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 143

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

95.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

75.56%±36.501,810 openings

7 days

83.40%±14.9511K openings

30 days

84.84%±13.7613K openings

since tracking started

84.84%±13.7613K openings

38.5%75.5%112.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,810	75.56%±36.5	−0.8σ	odds
7d	11K	83.40%±15.0	−1.0σ	odds
30d	13K	84.84%±13.8	−0.9σ	odds
All	13K	84.84%±13.8	−0.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 13K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 10,000	$9,534 13,620 coins	4.9%	1	1.3	0.77×
Sticker \| LGB eSports (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 3,333	$4,088 5,840 coins	6.3%	3	3.9	0.77×
★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 2,500	$3,217 4,595 coins	6.6%	7	5.2	1.34×
Souvenir M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 4,000	$2,118 3,025 coins	2.7%	1	3.3	0.31×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,667	$1,461 2,087 coins	4.5%	7	7.8	0.89×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 541	$1,366 1,951 coins	12.9%	23	24.1	0.95×
★ Sport Gloves \| Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,000	$1,285 1,835 coins	6.6%	11	13.0	0.84×
M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$1,114 1,591 coins	2.8%	7	6.5	1.07×
★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 500	$557 796 coins	5.7%	20	26.1	0.77×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 250	$415 593 coins	8.5%	55	52.2	1.05×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 200	$336 480 coins	8.6%	55	65.2	0.84×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 167	$323 462 coins	9.9%	67	78.3	0.86×
USP-S \| Target Acquired (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 333	$289 413 coins	4.4%	49	39.1	1.25×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Redline (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 100	$131 187 coins	6.7%	131	130.4	1.00×
MAC-10 \| Red Filigree (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 67	$117 167 coins	9.0%	184	195.6	0.94×
MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer	45.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	5,921	5868.9	1.01×
PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer	50.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	6,500	6521.0	1.00×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$21.7431.06 coins$10K14,325 coins461.2x7d

Sticker | LGB eSports (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$21.7431.06 coins$4,0885,840 coins188.0x3d

Sticker | LGB eSports (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkableshabi$21.7431.06 coins$4,0885,840 coins188.0x3d

Sticker | LGB eSports (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$21.7431.06 coins$4,0885,840 coins188.0x5d

Sticker | LGB eSports (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkableVetyyy$21.7431.06 coins$4,0885,840 coins188.0x8d

★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertVaulty$21.5330.76 coins$3,2174,595 coins149.4x5h

★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert🟢LIVE NOW -> kick.com/budics$21.5330.76 coins$3,2174,595 coins149.4x1d

★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$21.7431.06 coins$3,2174,595 coins147.9x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$21.5330.76 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x50s

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$21.5330.76 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x50s

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$21.5330.76 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x50s

StatTrak™ AWP | Redline (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary$21.5330.76 coins$131187 coins6.08x50s

StatTrak™ AWP | Redline (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · LegendaryEdvino$21.5330.76 coins$131187 coins6.08x50s

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$21.5330.76 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x14m

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumerBismillah Alrahim Alraham$21.5330.76 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x14m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$21.5330.76 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x14m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$21.53	90.90%	17
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$21.74	90.90%	17

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 1.6%remarkable 0.0%extraordinary 0.4%classified 0.5%Legendary 1.0%restricted 1.5%consumer 95.0%best hit $10K (461.2x)