Reef Bays

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$35.96

51.37 coins

Advertised RTP

90.90%

EV $32.69 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.20%

2,257 openings, odds method

Variance

2.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

15.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

74.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

84.42%±28.46124 openings

7 days

87.69%±7.361,832 openings

30 days

87.20%±6.622,257 openings

since tracking started

87.20%±6.622,257 openings

55.5%84.5%113.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	124	84.42%±28.5	−0.4σ	odds
7d	1,832	87.69%±7.36	−0.9σ	odds
30d	2,257	87.20%±6.62	−1.1σ	odds
All	2,257	87.20%±6.62	−1.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,258 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$2,258 3,225 coins	0.7%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,500	$1,002 1,432 coins	1.2%	0	0.9	—
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 667	$594 848 coins	2.7%	6	3.4	1.77×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 125	$178 254 coins	4.4%	14	18.1	0.78×
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 100	$162 231 coins	4.9%	23	22.6	1.02×
★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 33	$151 215 coins	13.8%	75	67.7	1.11×
★ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 20	$124 177 coins	19.0%	90	112.9	0.80×
Galil AR \| Aqua Terrace (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$88.90 127 coins	13.6%	124	112.9	1.10×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 20	$73.50 105 coins	11.2%	110	112.9	0.97×
Sticker \| apEX (Foil) \| Cologne 2016sticker · exotic	1 in 17	$68.49 97.85 coins	12.6%	128	135.5	0.94×
Cmdr. Frank 'Wet Sox' Baroud \| SEAL Frogmanagent · red	1 in 17	$33.42 47.74 coins	6.1%	108	135.5	0.80×
Nova \| Tempest (Factory New)weapon · blue	10.0%	$15.55 22.21 coins	4.8%	225	225.8	1.00×
USP-S \| Royal Blue (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	13.0%	$7.55 10.78 coins	3.0%	290	293.5	0.99×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Serenity (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	15.0%	$3.11 4.44 coins	1.4%	336	338.7	0.99×
P90 \| Reef Grief (Factory New)weapon · uncommon	15.0%	$0.64 0.91 coins	0.3%	346	338.7	1.02×
SCAR-20 \| Blueprint (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	15.0%	$0.59 0.85 coins	0.3%	383	338.7	1.13×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire$36.5652.23 coins$604863 coins16.52x4d

★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire$36.5352.18 coins$604863 coins16.54x6d

★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · SapphirePhiliacos$36.5352.18 coins$604863 coins16.54x6d

★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire$36.5352.18 coins$604863 coins16.54x7d

★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire$35.9651.37 coins$594848 coins16.51x1d

★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire$35.9651.37 coins$594848 coins16.51x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert$35.9651.37 coins$73.50105 coins2.04x1m

★ Flip Knife | Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert$35.9651.37 coins$124177 coins3.45x1m

P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)weapon · uncommon$35.9651.37 coins$0.640.91 coins0.02x2m

Nova | Tempest (Factory New)weapon · blue$35.9651.37 coins$15.5522.21 coins0.43x3m

Galil AR | Aqua Terrace (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$35.9651.37 coins$88.90127 coins2.47x3m

USP-S | Royal Blue (Field-Tested)weapon · industrialRusty Cake$35.9651.37 coins$7.5510.78 coins0.21x13m

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Serenity (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$35.9651.37 coins$3.114.44 coins0.09x40m

P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)weapon · uncommon$35.9651.37 coins$0.640.91 coins0.02x4h

Nova | Tempest (Factory New)weapon · blue$35.9651.37 coins$15.5522.21 coins0.43x4h

USP-S | Royal Blue (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$35.9651.37 coins$7.5510.78 coins0.21x4h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$35.96	90.90%	16
9 Nov, 01:53 UTC	$35.96	90.92%	16
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$35.96	90.91%	16
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$36.06	90.90%	16
6 Nov, 23:09 UTC	$36.56	90.91%	16
5 Nov, 22:45 UTC	$36.56	90.92%	16
3 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$36.53	90.91%	16
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$36.57	90.90%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 0.0%classified 0.8%covert 14.2%mil spec 5.0%exotic 6.0%red 6.0%blue 10.0%industrial 13.0%restricted 15.0%uncommon 15.0%#4b69ff 15.0%best hit $604 (16.52x)