Renaissance

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$9.06

12.94 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $8.23 from 22 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.47%

1,888 openings, odds method

Variance

1.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

21.9%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

78.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

98.15%±14.84215 openings

7 days

92.70%±5.231,691 openings

30 days

92.47%±4.951,888 openings

since tracking started

92.47%±4.951,888 openings

82.5%98.0%113.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	215	98.15%±14.8	+1.0σ	odds
7d	1,691	92.70%±5.23	+0.7σ	odds
30d	1,888	92.47%±4.95	+0.6σ	odds
All	1,888	92.47%±4.95	+0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,894 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$173 247 coins	0.4%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$152 217 coins	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 11,111	$134 192 coins	0.1%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 3,333	$115 164 coins	0.4%	0	0.6	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 1,111	$108 154 coins	1.2%	1	1.7	0.59×
CZ75-Auto \| Emerald Quartz (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,000	$59.14 84.48 coins	0.7%	2	1.9	1.06×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 667	$57.46 82.08 coins	1.0%	3	2.8	1.06×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$53.17 75.95 coins	0.2%	2	0.6	—
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 76	$51.29 73.27 coins	8.2%	28	25.0	1.12×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon	1 in 30	$40.77 58.24 coins	16.6%	59	63.4	0.93×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Pulse (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 23	$15.11 21.59 coins	8.1%	87	83.3	1.04×
Galil AR \| Eco (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 14	$11.47 16.39 coins	9.8%	133	132.6	1.00×
MP9 \| Hydra (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 19	$10.66 15.23 coins	7.0%	116	102.3	1.13×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon	1 in 15	$8.79 12.56 coins	7.3%	132	128.8	1.02×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 12	$7.43 10.61 coins	7.5%	161	157.2	1.02×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 12	$6.46 9.23 coins	6.7%	185	161.0	1.15×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Fubar (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	10.3%	$4.61 6.59 coins	5.8%	186	195.1	0.95×
P90 \| Attack Vector (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 13	$4.59 6.56 coins	4.5%	140	151.5	0.92×
MAG-7 \| BI83 Spectrum (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 11	$4.59 6.56 coins	4.9%	177	164.8	1.07×
XM1014 \| XOXO (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 11	$4.26 6.09 coins	4.9%	158	178.0	0.89×
SG 553 \| Desert Blossom (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 13	$2.65 3.78 coins	2.6%	153	151.5	1.01×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	10.1%	$1.88 2.68 coins	2.3%	170	191.3	0.89×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MAG-7 | BI83 Spectrum (Factory New)weapon · restricted$9.0612.94 coins$4.596.56 coins0.51x40m

P90 | Attack Vector (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon$9.0612.94 coins$4.596.56 coins0.51x40m

SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$9.0612.94 coins$2.653.78 coins0.29x40m

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$9.0612.94 coins$1.882.68 coins0.21x40m

XM1014 | XOXO (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$9.0612.94 coins$4.266.09 coins0.47x40m

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Pulse (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedJarza$9.0612.94 coins$15.1121.59 coins1.67x40m

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$9.0612.94 coins$1.882.68 coins0.21x41m

SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$9.0612.94 coins$2.653.78 coins0.29x41m

SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specJarza$9.0612.94 coins$2.653.78 coins0.29x41m

StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Fubar (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$9.0612.94 coins$4.616.59 coins0.51x41m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$9.06	90.91%	22
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$9.11	90.89%	22
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$9.11	90.88%	22

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 1.6%classified 23.1%mil spec 18.4%uncommon 18.1%restricted 23.2%pink 7.0%Legendary 8.5%best hit —