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Restricted

A case on CSGORoll (csgo), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$146.99
210 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $133.62 from 34 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.01%
122 openings, odds method
Variance
1.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
19.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.8%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
7 days
88.01%±23.62122 openings
30 days
88.01%±23.62122 openings
since tracking started
88.01%±23.62122 openings
63.5%88.0%112.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h0———
7d12288.01%±23.6−0.2σodds
30d12288.01%±23.6−0.2σodds
All12288.01%±23.6−0.2σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 122 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable1 in 10,000$6,780 9,685 coins0.5%00.0—
Sticker | Ninjas in Pyjamas (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable1 in 5,000$5,040 7,200 coins0.8%00.0—
Sticker | mousesports (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable1 in 10,000$4,949 7,070 coins0.4%00.0—
Sticker | LGB eSports (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable1 in 10,000$4,088 5,840 coins0.3%00.0—
Sticker | compLexity Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable1 in 500$2,153 3,075 coins3.2%00.2—
Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2015sticker · remarkable1 in 500$1,387 1,982 coins2.1%00.2—
Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 1,000$1,165 1,664 coins0.9%00.1—
Sticker | Fnatic (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable1 in 500$1,007 1,439 coins1.5%00.2—
Souvenir Desert Eagle | Hand Cannon (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted1 in 125$665 950 coins4.0%11.0—
Desert Eagle | Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 200$552 788 coins2.1%10.6—
Five-SeveN | Neon Kimono (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 200$465 664 coins1.7%00.6—
Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 弐 (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 167$404 577 coins1.8%00.7—
M4A1-S | Icarus Fell (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 333$385 550 coins0.9%00.4—
Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 100$370 529 coins2.8%31.22.46×
P90 | Astral Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 111$356 508 coins2.4%21.11.82×
CZ75-Auto | Chalice (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 50$348 497 coins5.2%42.41.64×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 50$334 477 coins5.0%52.42.05×
AUG | Flame Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 100$305 435 coins2.3%01.20.00×
SSG 08 | Sea Calico (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 111$285 407 coins1.9%01.10.00×
Glock-18 | Synth Leaf (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 50$273 390 coins4.1%12.40.41×
Dual Berettas | Duelist (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 33$219 313 coins4.9%43.71.09×
Desert Eagle | Pilot (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 33$159 227 coins3.6%23.70.55×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 33$125 179 coins2.8%43.71.09×
Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 25$124 177 coins3.7%54.91.02×
P250 | Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 20$123 176 coins4.6%96.11.48×
MP9 | Bulldozer (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 25$90.30 129 coins2.7%74.91.43×
AK-47 | First Class (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 13$90.30 129 coins5.4%109.81.02×
Nova | Baroque Orange (Field-Tested)weapon · violet10.0%$88.20 126 coins6.6%1312.21.07×
Glock-18 | Dragon Tattoo (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 25$72.80 104 coins2.2%44.90.82×
USP-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 25$68.93 98.47 coins2.1%54.91.02×
Souvenir FAMAS | Styx (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted15.0%$64.57 92.24 coins7.2%1218.30.66×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Bright Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted20.0%$59.58 85.12 coins8.9%2724.41.11×
USP-S | Orange Anolis (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 33$54.97 78.53 coins1.2%33.70.82×
Souvenir M4A1-S | Nitro (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted1 in 133$52.19 74.56 coins0.3%00.9—
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Souvenir Desert Eagle | Hand Cannon (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$151216 coins$665950 coins4.41x
Desert Eagle | Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$151216 coins$561802 coins3.72x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
AK-47 | First Class (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$151216 coins$90.30129 coins0.60x
USP-S | Orange Anolis (Factory New)weapon · restricted$151216 coins$63.3790.53 coins0.42x
Nova | Baroque Orange (Field-Tested)weapon · violet$151216 coins$88.20126 coins0.58x
P250 | Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$151216 coins$125178 coins0.83x
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$151216 coins$350500 coins2.32x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Bright Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedlielfarag70$151216 coins$60.2586.07 coins0.40x
AK-47 | First Class (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$151216 coins$90.30129 coins0.60x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Bright Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$151216 coins$60.2586.07 coins0.40x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$151216 coins$111158 coins0.73x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Bright Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$151216 coins$60.2586.07 coins0.40x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC$14790.91%34
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC$14890.91%34
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$15190.91%34
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedremarkable 0.7%restricted 89.4%violet 10.0%best hit $665 (4.41x)