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Resurrection

A case on CSGORoll (25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$127.20
182 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $115.63 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
69.27%
602 openings, odds method
Variance
16.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 40
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
87.5%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
22 openings · below min
7 days
59.82%±40.06407 openings
30 days
69.27%±32.96602 openings
since tracking started
69.27%±32.96602 openings
-0.5%112.3%225.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h2252.16%±172.0—odds
7d40759.82%±40.1−1.5σodds
30d60269.27%±33.0−1.3σodds
All60269.27%±33.0−1.3σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 602 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby1 in 1,000$9,342 13,345 coins8.1%00.6—
M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contraband1 in 250$5,156 7,365 coins17.8%22.40.83×
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby1 in 125$2,615 3,735 coins18.1%14.80.21×
★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · epic1 in 83$1,170 1,672 coins12.1%47.20.55×
★ Specialist Gloves | Lt. Commander (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary1 in 50$917 1,310 coins15.9%1512.01.25×
★ Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 33$253 362 coins6.6%2618.11.44×
StatTrak™ AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 20$221 316 coins9.6%3230.11.06×
★ Hand Wraps | Overprint (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary1 in 25$115 164 coins4.0%2024.10.83×
★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 12$107 153 coins7.9%5451.21.06×
P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer25.0%$0.02 0.03 coins0.0%150150.51.00×
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer25.0%$0.01 0.02 coins0.0%128150.50.85×
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer25.0%<$0.01 0.01 coins0.0%170150.51.13×
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contraband🟢Kick: JULSY$129184 coins$5,1707,385 coins40.04x
M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contraband$127182 coins$5,1567,365 coins40.53x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Rubyhellsten05$129184 coins$2,6393,770 coins20.44x
★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · epic$129184 coins$1,2321,760 coins9.54x
★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · epic$129184 coins$1,2321,760 coins9.54x
★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · epic$129184 coins$1,2321,760 coins9.54x
★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · epic$129184 coins$1,2321,760 coins9.54x
★ Specialist Gloves | Lt. Commander (Factory New)gloves · extraordinaryVitaliyOnis$127182 coins$9171,310 coins7.21x
★ Specialist Gloves | Lt. Commander (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$127182 coins$9171,310 coins7.21x
★ Specialist Gloves | Lt. Commander (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary✪ SickoM$127182 coins$9171,310 coins7.21x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerKickerrrrrrrr$127182 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x
P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$127182 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$127182 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x
P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$127182 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x
P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$127182 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerKickerrrrrrrr$127182 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x
★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert$127182 coins$107153 coins0.84x
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$127182 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$127182 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerKickerrrrrrrr$127182 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
9 Nov, 08:05 UTC$12790.91%12
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC$12790.91%12
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$12990.91%12
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 17.4%contraband 0.4%epic 1.2%extraordinary 6.0%consumer 75.0%best hit $5,170 (40.04x)