Retro
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$15.62
22.32 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $14.20 from 15 items
Observed RTP, 30d
76.21%
1,503 openings, odds method
Variance
6.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 90.90% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (63.36% – 89.06%, 1,503 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,503 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Tango (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon$15.6222.32 coins$4.616.59 coins0.30x
Sawed-Off | Serenity (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedTerroristi$15.6222.32 coins$1.582.26 coins0.10x
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Tango (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon$15.6222.32 coins$4.616.59 coins0.30x
Souvenir MAC-10 | Candy Apple (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$15.6222.32 coins$1.532.18 coins0.10x
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Tango (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon$15.6222.32 coins$4.616.59 coins0.30x
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Tango (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon$15.6222.32 coins$4.616.59 coins0.30x
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Tango (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · uncommonTerroristi$15.6222.32 coins$4.616.59 coins0.30x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $15.62 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $15.50 | 90.93% | 15 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $15.44 | 90.89% | 15 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $15.43 | 90.93% | 15 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 5.2%extraordinary 0.5%classified 0.3%pink 6.0%remarkable 15.0%restricted 25.5%exotic 10.0%uncommon 17.0%mil spec 11.5%industrial 9.0%best hit —