Reverse

A case on CSGORoll (40%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$103.29

148 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $93.90 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.05%

43 openings, odds method

Variance

0.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

51.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

88.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

43 openings · below min

30 days

43 openings · below min

since tracking started

43 openings · below min

78.0%87.0%96.0%

Small sample. 43 openings and 22.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	43	87.05%±8.29	—	odds
30d	43	87.05%±8.29	—	odds
All	43	87.05%±8.29	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 43 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 200	$310 443 coins	1.7%	0	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 50	$186 266 coins	4.0%	1	0.9	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 100	$120 172 coins	1.3%	1	0.4	—
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 13	$113 161 coins	9.6%	2	3.4	0.58×
Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	40.0%	$103 147 coins	43.8%	16	17.2	0.93×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	11.5%	$89.60 128 coins	11.0%	7	4.9	1.42×
R8 Revolver \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert	20.0%	$88.20 126 coins	18.8%	5	8.6	0.58×
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 20	$86.10 123 coins	4.6%	3	2.1	1.40×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 20	$52.27 74.67 coins	2.8%	5	2.1	2.33×
MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$41.77 59.67 coins	0.9%	0	0.9	—
★ Hydra Gloves \| Gamma Doppler (Well-Worn) (Emerald)gloves · extraordinary · Emerald	1 in 20	$30.87 44.1 coins	1.6%	3	2.1	1.40×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.