Risk

A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$1.05

1.5 coins

Advertised RTP

90.87%

EV $0.95 from 10 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.99%

145K openings, odds method

Variance

17.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 66

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

94.01%±6.7015.3K openings

7 days

90.38%±2.33122K openings

30 days

89.99%±2.13145K openings

since tracking started

89.99%±2.13145K openings

86.5%94.0%101.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	15.3K	94.01%±6.70	+0.9σ	odds
7d	122K	90.38%±2.33	−0.3σ	odds
30d	145K	89.99%±2.13	−0.7σ	odds
All	145K	89.99%±2.13	−0.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 145K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$61.92 88.45 coins	0.6%	17	14.5	1.17×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$59.89 85.56 coins	6.3%	145	145.4	1.00×
USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 250	$34.79 49.7 coins	14.6%	548	581.8	0.94×
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$29.02 41.46 coins	30.4%	1,438	1454.4	0.99×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$12.29 17.56 coins	12.9%	1,456	1454.4	1.00×
AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$8.58 12.26 coins	18.0%	2,940	2908.9	1.01×
AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 29	$3.17 4.53 coins	11.6%	5,081	5076.0	1.00×
CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$2.20 3.14 coins	4.6%	2,883	2908.9	0.99×
PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	45.0%	$0.01 0.02 coins	0.7%	65,075	65449.3	0.99×
MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	45.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.3%	65,860	65449.3	1.01×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$1.041.49 coins$64.3291.88 coins61.66x3d

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinaryR2rS*$1.041.49 coins$64.3291.88 coins61.66x4d

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$1.041.49 coins$64.3291.88 coins61.66x5d

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinaryPC Principal$1.041.49 coins$64.3291.88 coins61.66x5d

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$1.041.49 coins$64.3291.88 coins61.66x5d

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$1.041.49 coins$64.3291.88 coins61.66x6d

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$1.041.49 coins$64.3291.88 coins61.66x7d

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinarySAFE THE KOALAS$1.041.49 coins$64.3291.88 coins61.66x7d

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$1.041.49 coins$64.3291.88 coins61.66x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$1.051.5 coins$0.010.02 coins0.01x40s

Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertPoarad | csgoroll.com$1.051.5 coins$29.0241.46 coins27.64x40s

AWP | Mortis (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$1.051.5 coins$3.174.53 coins3.02x1m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$1.051.5 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.01x1m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerUser#932$1.051.5 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.01x1m

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$1.051.5 coins$0.010.02 coins0.01x1m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$1.051.5 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.01x1m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$1.051.5 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.01x2m

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$1.051.5 coins$0.010.02 coins0.01x2m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.87%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$1.05	90.87%	10
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$1.04	90.76%	10

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 0.0%classified 6.6%covert 1.4%restricted 2.0%consumer 90.0%best hit $64.32 (61.66x)