Riskmas

A case on CSGORoll (5%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$8.13

11.62 coins

Advertised RTP

90.87%

EV $7.39 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.54%

23.5K openings, odds method

Variance

289.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 741

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

95.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

3,101 openings · below min

7 days

86.64%±24.0419.3K openings

30 days

87.54%±21.7623.5K openings

since tracking started

87.54%±21.7623.5K openings

39.0%99.5%160.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	3,101	99.66%±59.9	—	odds
7d	19.3K	86.64%±24.0	−0.3σ	odds
30d	23.5K	87.54%±21.8	−0.3σ	odds
All	23.5K	87.54%±21.8	−0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 23.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 2,857	$6,930 9,900 coins	32.8%	8	8.2	0.97×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 1,667	$1,600 2,285 coins	13.0%	10	14.1	0.71×
M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,500	$1,114 1,591 coins	6.0%	14	9.4	1.49×
Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,250	$412 589 coins	4.5%	16	18.8	0.85×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 400	$258 369 coins	8.7%	52	58.9	0.88×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 163	$62.39 89.13 coins	5.2%	157	144.8	1.08×
Dual Berettas \| Emerald (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 91	$27.90 39.86 coins	4.2%	249	259.1	0.96×
Souvenir Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec	1 in 833	$16.42 23.46 coins	0.3%	27	28.3	0.96×
SG 553 \| Integrale (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 67	$15.06 21.52 coins	3.1%	326	353.3	0.92×
AWP \| Green Energy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 125	$11.73 16.76 coins	1.3%	187	188.4	0.99×
AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 40	$7.06 10.08 coins	2.4%	564	588.8	0.96×
SG 553 \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 19	$4.61 6.59 coins	3.4%	1,236	1271.8	0.97×
Souvenir Nova \| Candy Apple (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · industrial	1 in 250	$3.53 5.04 coins	0.2%	92	94.2	0.98×
MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	10.0%	$3.46 4.94 coins	4.7%	2,359	2355.2	1.00×
Souvenir MAC-10 \| Candy Apple (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade	1 in 48	$3.14 4.48 coins	0.9%	483	494.6	0.98×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Signal (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	19.0%	$1.83 2.61 coins	4.7%	4,465	4474.9	1.00×
P250 \| Nevermore (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	26.0%	$0.74 1.06 coins	2.6%	6,176	6123.5	1.01×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	30.0%	$0.55 0.78 coins	2.2%	7,131	7065.6	1.01×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Rubym a L L e$8.2211.74 coins$6,9699,955 coins848.0x3d

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$8.2011.72 coins$6,9699,955 coins849.4x4d

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$8.2011.72 coins$6,9699,955 coins849.4x5d

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · RubyHan D. Ish$8.2011.72 coins$6,9699,955 coins849.4x6d

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$8.1911.7 coins$6,9699,955 coins850.9x7d

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$8.1911.7 coins$6,9699,955 coins850.9x8d

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$8.1311.62 coins$6,9309,900 coins852.0x3h

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Rubyaq334$8.1211.6 coins$6,9309,900 coins853.4x1d

★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1juLz71$8.2011.72 coins$1,6532,362 coins201.5x3d

★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1doktorskaja$8.2011.72 coins$1,6532,362 coins201.5x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P250 | Nevermore (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$8.1311.62 coins$0.741.06 coins0.09x19m

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$8.1311.62 coins$0.550.78 coins0.07x19m

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedPOOF$8.1311.62 coins$0.550.78 coins0.07x19m

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$8.1311.62 coins$0.550.78 coins0.07x19m

MP5-SD | Phosphor (Well-Worn)weapon · classifiedPOOF$8.1311.62 coins$3.464.94 coins0.43x22m

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$8.1311.62 coins$0.550.78 coins0.07x22m

P250 | Nevermore (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$8.1311.62 coins$0.741.06 coins0.09x22m

P250 | Nevermore (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$8.1311.62 coins$0.741.06 coins0.09x25m

SG 553 | Candy Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial$8.1311.62 coins$4.616.59 coins0.57x25m

StatTrak™ Galil AR | Signal (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$8.1311.62 coins$1.832.61 coins0.22x25m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.87%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:20 UTC	$8.13	90.87%	18
9 Nov, 01:53 UTC	$8.12	90.94%	18
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$8.12	90.91%	18
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$8.11	90.91%	18
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$8.22	90.89%	18
4 Nov, 22:33 UTC	$8.20	90.88%	18
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$8.19	90.93%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 1.0%classified 11.5%restricted 77.6%mil spec 1.2%#d32ce6 0.8%industrial 5.8%Industrial Grade 2.1%best hit $6,969 (848.0x)