Rocketpop

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$5.90

8.43 coins

Advertised RTP

90.92%

EV $5.37 from 22 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.50%

4,212 openings, odds method

Variance

2.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

23.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

62.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

85.27%±15.77452 openings

7 days

87.38%±5.763,546 openings

30 days

87.50%±5.294,212 openings

since tracking started

87.50%±5.294,212 openings

69.0%85.2%101.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	452	85.27%±15.8	−0.7σ	odds
7d	3,546	87.38%±5.76	−1.2σ	odds
30d	4,212	87.50%±5.29	−1.2σ	odds
All	4,212	87.50%±5.29	−1.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,212 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| CMYK (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$491 701 coins	0.9%	0	0.4	—
Sticker \| Crown (Foil)sticker · exotic	1 in 5,000	$329 470 coins	1.2%	0	0.8	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 3,333	$193 275 coins	1.1%	1	1.3	0.79×
Tec-9 \| Terrace (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 500	$76.30 109 coins	2.8%	7	8.4	0.83×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 200	$37.08 52.97 coins	3.5%	21	21.1	1.00×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 40	$34.96 49.94 coins	16.3%	93	105.3	0.88×
Desert Eagle \| Night (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 67	$12.75 18.22 coins	3.6%	62	63.2	0.98×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 22	$9.14 13.05 coins	7.7%	199	189.5	1.05×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 286	$7.56 10.8 coins	0.5%	14	14.7	0.95×
Desert Eagle \| Directive (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	14.0%	$7.08 10.11 coins	18.5%	638	589.7	1.08×
StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$6.84 9.77 coins	5.1%	160	168.5	0.95×
Sticker \| Watermelon Tier6 (Holo)sticker · remarkable	1 in 29	$6.73 9.61 coins	4.4%	135	147.4	0.92×
Sticker \| Miami Flick (Holo)sticker · remarkable	1 in 37	$6.57 9.39 coins	3.3%	130	113.7	1.14×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon	1 in 33	$6.41 9.15 coins	3.6%	152	126.4	1.20×
Sticker \| KOI (Holo) \| Copenhagen 2024sticker · exotic	1 in 125	$6.27 8.96 coins	0.9%	25	33.7	0.74×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	10.0%	$5.30 7.57 coins	9.9%	393	421.2	0.93×
Sticker \| Outsiders (Holo) \| Antwerp 2022sticker · exotic	1 in 100	$5.09 7.27 coins	0.9%	37	42.1	0.88×
StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Midnight Riders, All I Want for Christmasmusic kit · high	1 in 20	$4.59 6.55 coins	4.3%	229	210.6	1.09×
Sticker \| Virtus.pro (Gold) \| Copenhagen 2024sticker · extraordinary	12.4%	$2.44 3.48 coins	5.6%	499	521.9	0.96×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	15.0%	$1.26 1.8 coins	3.5%	608	631.8	0.96×
Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 50	$1.15 1.65 coins	0.4%	78	84.2	0.93×
Sticker \| Fade Lethalsticker · high	17.0%	$0.64 0.91 coins	2.0%	731	716.0	1.02×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | Miami Flick (Holo)sticker · remarkable$5.908.43 coins$6.579.39 coins1.11x19m

StatTrak™ P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified$5.908.43 coins$9.1413.05 coins1.55x19m

Desert Eagle | Directive (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedBiO-HaZarD$5.908.43 coins$7.0810.11 coins1.20x19m

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$5.908.43 coins$1.261.8 coins0.21x25m

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Shinobu (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · uncommonBiO-HaZarD$5.908.43 coins$6.419.15 coins1.09x25m

Sticker | Watermelon Tier6 (Holo)sticker · remarkable$5.908.43 coins$6.739.61 coins1.14x25m

Sticker | Fade Lethalsticker · high$5.908.43 coins$0.640.91 coins0.11x25m

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified$5.908.43 coins$5.307.57 coins0.90x25m

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedBiO-HaZarD$5.908.43 coins$1.261.8 coins0.21x25m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 01:53 UTC	$5.90	90.92%	22
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$5.90	90.94%	22
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$5.73	90.92%	22
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$5.73	90.92%	22

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 2.5%exotic 1.8%extraordinary 12.4%mil spec 0.2%rare 0.5%industrial 1.5%classified 14.5%pink 0.4%restricted 33.0%remarkable 6.2%uncommon 5.0%high 22.0%best hit —