Rocky Road
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$6.34
9.05 coins
Advertised RTP
90.93%
EV $5.76 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.75%
6,052 openings, odds method
Variance
6.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 13
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
79.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,052 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.93%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 14:18 UTC | $6.34 | 90.93% | 16 |
| 10 Nov, 08:16 UTC | $6.34 | 90.92% | 16 |
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $6.36 | 90.89% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $6.36 | 90.91% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $6.36 | 90.92% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $6.22 | 90.93% | 16 |
| 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $6.22 | 90.93% | 16 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $6.22 | 90.96% | 16 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $6.23 | 90.86% | 16 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $6.24 | 90.91% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%consumer 45.0%restricted 6.0%mil spec 49.0%best hit —