Rollercoaster

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$6.87

9.82 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $6.25 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.56%

3,662 openings, odds method

Variance

2.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

17.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

74.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

86.57%±12.02527 openings

7 days

88.03%±5.052,977 openings

30 days

87.56%±4.563,662 openings

since tracking started

87.56%±4.563,662 openings

74.0%86.5%99.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	527	86.57%±12.0	−0.7σ	odds
7d	2,977	88.03%±5.05	−1.1σ	odds
30d	3,662	87.56%±4.56	−1.4σ	odds
All	3,662	87.56%±4.56	−1.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,666 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 4,167	$113 161 coins	0.4%	0	0.9	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 147	$56.67 80.95 coins	6.2%	24	24.9	0.96×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 67	$47.43 67.75 coins	11.4%	59	55.0	1.07×
MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 36	$32.64 46.63 coins	14.6%	89	102.6	0.87×
Souvenir Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec	1 in 6,250	$18.97 27.1 coins	0.0%	0	0.6	—
Krakow 2017 Challengers (Holo-Foil)other · base	1 in 21	$18.73 26.76 coins	14.4%	155	176.0	0.88×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Muertos (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 13	$12.98 18.54 coins	16.5%	283	290.7	0.97×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 12	$11.04 15.77 coins	14.7%	300	304.3	0.99×
Sticker \| Copenhagen Flames (Holo) \| Stockholm 2021sticker · remarkable	1 in 14	$4.83 6.9 coins	5.4%	255	256.6	0.99×
Sticker \| G2 Esports \| Cluj-Napoca 2015sticker · high	1 in 12	$3.56 5.09 coins	4.8%	330	311.6	1.06×
Train Pinpin · high	16.0%	$2.20 3.15 coins	5.6%	618	586.6	1.05×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	19.0%	$0.90 1.29 coins	2.7%	704	696.5	1.01×
P250 \| Nevermore (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	23.4%	$0.85 1.21 coins	3.2%	849	859.7	0.99×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon$6.879.82 coins$0.901.29 coins0.13x7m

StatTrak™ P250 | Muertos (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedBARDA$6.879.82 coins$12.9818.54 coins1.89x7m

USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon$6.879.82 coins$0.901.29 coins0.13x12m

P250 | Nevermore (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedBARDA$6.879.82 coins$0.851.21 coins0.12x12m

P250 | Nevermore (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedwSe$6.879.82 coins$0.851.21 coins0.12x15m

StatTrak™ P250 | Muertos (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified$6.879.82 coins$12.9818.54 coins1.89x15m

P250 | Nevermore (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$6.879.82 coins$0.851.21 coins0.12x16m

USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon$6.879.82 coins$0.901.29 coins0.13x16m

Sticker | Copenhagen Flames (Holo) | Stockholm 2021sticker · remarkable$6.879.82 coins$4.836.9 coins0.70x16m

Sticker | Copenhagen Flames (Holo) | Stockholm 2021sticker · remarkableinvisibility$6.879.82 coins$4.836.9 coins0.70x16m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 00:04 UTC	$6.87	90.91%	13
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$6.88	90.89%	13
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$6.97	90.87%	13
5 Nov, 22:45 UTC	$6.97	90.87%	13
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$6.97	90.94%	13

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.7%classified 17.7%restricted 26.3%mil spec 0.0%base 4.8%remarkable 7.0%high 24.5%uncommon 19.0%best hit —