Roman
A case on CSGORoll (70%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$221.55
317 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $201.41 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.97%
48 openings, odds method
Variance
0.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
54.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
40.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 48 openings and 26.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 48 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $473 676 coins | 2.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert | 1 in 200 | $446 637 coins | 1.1% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| AWP | Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $431 616 coins | 10.7% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4 | 15.0% | $323 461 coins | 24.0% | 5 | 7.2 | 0.69× |
| ★ Flip Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert | 33.0% | $273 390 coins | 44.7% | 20 | 15.8 | 1.26× |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 20 | $225 321 coins | 5.6% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.42× |
| ★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4 | 10.5% | $221 315 coins | 11.5% | 7 | 5.0 | 1.39× |
| P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 10.0% | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.0% | 5 | 4.8 | 1.04× |
| PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 10.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 4 | 4.8 | 0.83× |
| MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 10.0% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 5 | 4.8 | 1.04× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$222317 coins$221315 coins1.00x
★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$222317 coins$221315 coins1.00x
★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$222317 coins$221315 coins1.00x
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4Lars$222317 coins$323461 coins1.46x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $222 | 90.91% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $222 | 90.91% | 10 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $220 | 90.91% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 65.0%extraordinary 5.0%consumer 30.0%best hit —