Romeo
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.22
1.75 coins
Advertised RTP
90.95%
EV $1.11 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.46%
12.9K openings, odds method
Variance
3.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
46.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
78.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.9K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.95%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:20 UTC | $1.22 | 90.95% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $1.22 | 91.17% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $1.20 | 91.00% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $1.22 | 91.05% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $1.25 | 91.05% | 16 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $1.25 | 91.03% | 16 |
| 4 Nov, 22:33 UTC | $1.25 | 90.85% | 16 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.25 | 90.81% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrare 0.0%covert 0.1%high 1.2%classified 0.1%remarkable 0.2%restricted 9.3%extraordinary 25.5%base 10.0%exotic 23.5%mil spec 30.1%best hit $135 (110.3x)