Rotten

A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$72.82

104 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $66.20 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

101.35%

2,649 openings, odds method

Variance

10.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 40

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

162 openings · below min

7 days

100.23%±12.482,479 openings

30 days

101.35%±12.072,649 openings

since tracking started

101.35%±12.072,649 openings

54.5%104.3%154.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	162	104.36%±49.1	—	odds
7d	2,479	100.23%±12.5	+1.5σ	odds
30d	2,649	101.35%±12.1	+1.7σ	odds
All	2,649	101.35%±12.1	+1.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,649 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 667	$2,895 4,135 coins	6.6%	3	4.0	0.76×
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,000	$2,716 3,880 coins	2.1%	4	1.3	3.02×
★ Moto Gloves \| Cool Mint (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 1,250	$1,724 2,463 coins	2.1%	1	2.1	0.47×
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$1,655 2,364 coins	0.2%	0	0.3	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Night (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 222	$1,393 1,990 coins	9.5%	15	11.9	1.26×
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 1,000	$1,331 1,901 coins	2.0%	2	2.6	0.76×
★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 333	$1,292 1,845 coins	5.9%	10	7.9	1.26×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 167	$1,157 1,653 coins	10.5%	18	15.9	1.13×
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 133	$1,002 1,432 coins	11.4%	23	19.9	1.16×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 111	$522 746 coins	7.1%	22	23.8	0.92×
★ Karambit \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 80	$454 649 coins	8.6%	50	33.1	1.51×
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 100	$356 508 coins	5.4%	27	26.5	1.02×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Night (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 71	$299 427 coins	6.3%	43	37.1	1.16×
SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 60	$160 229 coins	4.0%	37	44.0	0.84×
★ Moto Gloves \| Smoke Out (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 77	$151 216 coins	3.0%	25	34.4	0.73×
Sticker \| Lore Poison Frog (Foil)sticker · exotic	30.0%	$16.86 24.09 coins	7.6%	825	794.7	1.04×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Death's Head (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	30.0%	$10.48 14.97 coins	4.7%	796	794.7	1.00×
AUG \| Death by Puppy (Factory New)weapon · classified	30.0%	$6.92 9.89 coins	3.1%	748	794.7	0.94×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New)gloves · legendary$72.82104 coins$2,8954,135 coins39.75x12h

★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New)gloves · legendary$73.64105 coins$2,8324,045 coins38.45x5d

★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New)gloves · legendaryJake$73.64105 coins$2,8324,045 coins38.45x6d

★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New)gloves · legendary$73.64105 coins$2,8324,045 coins38.45x7d

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$73.51105 coins$2,8044,005 coins38.14x3d

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinaryDer beste Uwe$73.64105 coins$2,8044,005 coins38.07x5d

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$73.64105 coins$2,8044,005 coins38.07x5d

★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint (Factory New)gloves · legendaryDer beste Uwe$73.51105 coins$1,7302,471 coins23.53x3d

★ Butterfly Knife | Night (Factory New)knife · covert$72.82104 coins$1,3931,990 coins19.13x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AUG | Death by Puppy (Factory New)weapon · classified$72.82104 coins$6.929.89 coins0.10x1h

Sticker | Lore Poison Frog (Foil)sticker · exotic$72.82104 coins$16.8624.09 coins0.23x1h

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Death's Head (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$72.82104 coins$10.4814.97 coins0.14x1h

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3Kickerrrrrrrr$72.82104 coins$356508 coins4.88x1h

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Death's Head (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$72.82104 coins$10.4814.97 coins0.14x1h

Sticker | Lore Poison Frog (Foil)sticker · exotic$72.82104 coins$16.8624.09 coins0.23x1h

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Death's Head (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$72.82104 coins$10.4814.97 coins0.14x1h

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Death's Head (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedLil Purp csgoroll.com$72.82104 coins$10.4814.97 coins0.14x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$72.82	90.91%	18
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$72.93	90.91%	18
5 Nov, 22:45 UTC	$73.51	90.91%	18
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$73.64	90.91%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.2%extraordinary 1.7%covert 5.7%classified 32.4%exotic 30.0%restricted 30.0%best hit $2,895 (39.75x)