Rubber
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$23.31
33.3 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $21.19 from 23 items
Observed RTP, 30d
77.31%
1,794 openings, odds method
Variance
7.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 18
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 90.90% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (64.31% – 90.31%, 1,794 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,794 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restrictedRusty Cake$23.3133.3 coins$582832 coins24.98x
Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$23.3133.3 coins$582832 coins24.98x
Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$23.3433.34 coins$582832 coins24.96x
Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restrictedKenny Starfighter CSGOROLL.COM$23.2133.16 coins$582832 coins25.09x
Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$23.2133.16 coins$582832 coins25.09x
Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$23.2033.14 coins$582832 coins25.11x
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restrictedRusty Cake$23.3133.3 coins$582832 coins24.98x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:20 UTC | $23.31 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $23.31 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $23.34 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $23.37 | 90.92% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $23.21 | 90.92% | 23 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $23.22 | 90.90% | 23 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $23.21 | 90.92% | 23 |
| 4 Nov, 22:33 UTC | $23.20 | 90.92% | 23 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $23.20 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $23.18 | 90.92% | 23 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 42.3%classified 1.7%covert 7.6%extraordinary 0.5%industrial 1.5%mil spec 29.5%exotic 3.0%Classified 6.0%high 8.0%best hit $582 (24.98x)