Rubik case

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$6.38

9.12 coins

Advertised RTP

90.94%

EV $5.81 from 23 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.74%

9,045 openings, odds method

Variance

54.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 23

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

78.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

82.45%±46.83954 openings

7 days

93.03%±16.667,518 openings

30 days

89.74%±15.199,045 openings

since tracking started

89.74%±15.199,045 openings

35.0%82.5%130.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	954	82.45%±46.8	−0.4σ	odds
7d	7,518	93.03%±16.7	+0.2σ	odds
30d	9,045	89.74%±15.2	−0.2σ	odds
All	9,045	89.74%±15.2	−0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,055 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100,000	$10.7K 15,300 coins	1.8%	0	0.1	—
Sticker \| LGB eSports (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 25,000	$4,088 5,840 coins	2.8%	0	0.4	—
M4A4 \| Daybreak (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 6,667	$561 801 coins	1.4%	1	1.4	0.74×
★ Sport Gloves \| Occult (Field-Tested)gloves · legendary	1 in 2,857	$429 613 coins	2.6%	2	3.2	0.63×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Cloud Chaser (Well-Worn)gloves · rare	1 in 1,333	$362 517 coins	4.7%	11	6.8	1.62×
M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$200 286 coins	6.9%	20	18.1	1.10×
★ Driver Gloves \| Seigaiha (Minimal Wear)gloves · epic	1 in 250	$145 207 coins	10.0%	35	36.2	0.97×
★ Moto Gloves \| Turtle (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 250	$52.24 74.63 coins	3.6%	38	36.2	1.05×
USP-S \| The Traitor (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 133	$47.59 67.98 coins	6.1%	67	67.9	0.99×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Temukau (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 87	$29.61 42.3 coins	5.9%	118	104.1	1.13×
Souvenir P250 \| Digital Architect (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	1 in 71	$19.12 27.31 coins	4.6%	161	126.8	1.27×
Sticker \| Sprout Esports (Holo) \| Boston 2018sticker · remarkable	1 in 64	$16.38 23.4 coins	4.4%	159	142.2	1.12×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 29	$11.41 16.3 coins	6.9%	306	316.9	0.97×
P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$10.75 15.35 coins	7.4%	360	362.2	0.99×
PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 24	$8.20 11.71 coins	5.9%	332	380.3	0.87×
Sticker \| Miami Buttery (Holo)sticker · remarkable	1 in 23	$7.36 10.52 coins	5.5%	389	389.4	1.00×
Dual Berettas \| Urban Shock (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 18	$4.45 6.36 coins	4.2%	490	498.0	0.98×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Survivor Z (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 13	$2.45 3.5 coins	3.3%	696	701.8	0.99×
Sticker \| Vitality (Holo) \| Stockholm 2021sticker · remarkable	1 in 12	$1.85 2.65 coins	2.7%	786	778.7	1.01×
StatTrak™ M249 \| System Lock (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 11	$1.69 2.41 coins	2.8%	1,009	860.2	1.17×
Sealed Graffiti \| Space Soldiers \| London 2018graffiti · high	11.8%	$1.62 2.32 coins	3.3%	920	1073.0	0.86×
MAC-10 \| Last Dive (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	12.5%	$1.10 1.57 coins	2.4%	1,147	1131.9	1.01×
StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Liquidation (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	22.3%	$0.20 0.28 coins	0.8%	2,008	2019.3	0.99×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A4 | Daybreak (Factory New)weapon · restrictedobibi$6.379.1 coins$559798 coins87.69x4d

★ Sport Gloves | Occult (Field-Tested)gloves · legendary$6.369.09 coins$433618 coins67.99x6d

★ Sport Gloves | Occult (Field-Tested)gloves · legendary$6.389.12 coins$429613 coins67.21x1d

★ Specialist Gloves | Cloud Chaser (Well-Worn)gloves · rare$6.379.1 coins$364520 coins57.14x3d

★ Specialist Gloves | Cloud Chaser (Well-Worn)gloves · rareGamblers Anonymous$6.379.1 coins$364520 coins57.14x3d

★ Specialist Gloves | Cloud Chaser (Well-Worn)gloves · rareSilviu Gherman$6.369.09 coins$364520 coins57.21x5d

★ Specialist Gloves | Cloud Chaser (Well-Worn)gloves · rare$6.369.09 coins$364520 coins57.21x5d

★ Specialist Gloves | Cloud Chaser (Well-Worn)gloves · raremikkeul09$6.369.09 coins$364520 coins57.21x5d

★ Specialist Gloves | Cloud Chaser (Well-Worn)gloves · rare$6.369.09 coins$364520 coins57.21x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | Vitality (Holo) | Stockholm 2021sticker · remarkable$6.389.12 coins$1.852.65 coins0.29x48s

Dual Berettas | Urban Shock (Factory New)weapon · restricted$6.389.12 coins$4.456.36 coins0.70x48s

StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Liquidation (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$6.389.12 coins$0.200.28 coins0.03x48s

Sealed Graffiti | Space Soldiers | London 2018graffiti · high$6.389.12 coins$1.622.32 coins0.25x48s

P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedJarza$6.389.12 coins$10.7515.35 coins1.68x48s

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Survivor Z (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$6.389.12 coins$2.453.5 coins0.38x5m

Sealed Graffiti | Space Soldiers | London 2018graffiti · high$6.389.12 coins$1.622.32 coins0.25x5m

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Survivor Z (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$6.389.12 coins$2.453.5 coins0.38x5m

MAC-10 | Last Dive (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted$6.389.12 coins$1.101.57 coins0.17x5m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.94%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 01:53 UTC	$6.38	90.94%	23
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$6.39	90.89%	23
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$6.44	90.94%	23
5 Nov, 22:45 UTC	$6.37	90.95%	23
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$6.36	90.94%	23

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 0.4%remarkable 14.5%restricted 19.4%legendary 0.0%rare 0.1%covert 2.1%epic 0.4%classified 11.7%mil spec 39.5%high 11.8%best hit $559 (87.69x)