Runic
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1,373.65
1,962 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $1,248.77 from 15 items
Observed RTP, 30d
78.69%
24 openings, odds method
Variance
7.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
18.2%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 24 openings and 4.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 24 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary$1,3911,988 coins$4,8306,900 coins3.47x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2tashud$1,3911,988 coins$1,6652,379 coins1.20x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$1,3911,988 coins$1,6652,379 coins1.20x
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$1,3911,988 coins$1,6212,315 coins1.16x
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$1,3911,988 coins$1,6212,315 coins1.16x
Sticker | rain (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker · extraordinarytashud$1,3911,988 coins$7041,005 coins0.51x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$1,3911,988 coins$449642 coins0.32x
★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary$1,3911,988 coins$4,8306,900 coins3.47x
★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emeraldtashud$1,3911,988 coins$449642 coins0.32x
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$1,3911,988 coins$1,6212,315 coins1.16x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $1,374 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1,391 | 90.91% | 15 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 1.1%remarkable 0.6%covert 53.0%extraordinary 19.3%high 13.0%exotic 13.0%best hit $5,656 (4.07x)