Rush

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$1.24

1.77 coins

Advertised RTP

91.02%

EV $1.13 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

91.11%

33K openings, odds method

Variance

8.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 15

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

87.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

98.64%±8.324,431 openings

7 days

90.19%±3.3927K openings

30 days

91.11%±3.0633K openings

since tracking started

91.11%±3.0633K openings

86.0%96.8%107.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	4,431	98.64%±8.32	+1.8σ	odds
7d	27K	90.19%±3.39	−0.4σ	odds
30d	33K	91.11%±3.06	+0.1σ	odds
All	33K	91.11%±3.06	+0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 33K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| RUSH (Gold) \| London 2018sticker · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$196 280 coins	1.7%	2	3.3	0.61×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 200	$27.04 38.63 coins	12.0%	162	165.2	0.98×
P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$11.77 16.82 coins	10.4%	339	330.4	1.03×
P90 \| Shapewood (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$8.88 12.68 coins	39.4%	1,674	1651.8	1.01×
UMP-45 \| Momentum (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 40	$4.45 6.36 coins	9.9%	848	825.9	1.03×
MAC-10 \| Heat (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$1.83 2.62 coins	6.5%	1,322	1321.4	1.00×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Photic Zone (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 11	$0.52 0.75 coins	4.2%	2,950	2973.2	0.99×
MP9 \| Bioleak (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	17.0%	$0.31 0.44 coins	4.6%	5,692	5616.0	1.01×
P2000 \| Ivory (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	18.0%	$0.31 0.44 coins	4.9%	6,009	5946.3	1.01×
MAC-10 \| Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial	12.0%	$0.27 0.39 coins	2.9%	3,882	3964.2	0.98×
Desert Eagle \| Urban Rubble (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	13.0%	$0.15 0.22 coins	1.8%	4,285	4294.6	1.00×
M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	18.0%	$0.10 0.15 coins	1.7%	5,870	5943.0	0.99×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Sticker | RUSH (Gold) | London 2018sticker · extraordinary$1.221.75 coins$197281 coins160.6x8d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP9 | Bioleak (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare$1.241.77 coins$0.310.44 coins0.25x1m

P2000 | Ivory (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec$1.241.77 coins$0.310.44 coins0.25x1m

M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$1.241.77 coins$0.100.15 coins0.08x1m

MAC-10 | Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrialMax1m$1.241.77 coins$0.270.39 coins0.22x1m

P2000 | Ivory (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec$1.241.77 coins$0.310.44 coins0.25x1m

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Photic Zone (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil specKebabas$1.241.77 coins$0.520.75 coins0.42x3m

Desert Eagle | Urban Rubble (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specM1koGooD$1.241.77 coins$0.150.22 coins0.12x3m

UMP-45 | Momentum (Well-Worn)weapon · classifiedRusty Cake$1.241.77 coins$4.456.36 coins3.59x3m

P2000 | Ivory (Well-Worn)weapon · mil specPilu bzw.VioLLin csgoroll.com$1.241.77 coins$0.310.44 coins0.25x3m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 91.02%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:26 UTC	$1.24	91.02%	12
10 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$1.24	91.09%	12
9 Nov, 20:11 UTC	$1.24	90.99%	12
9 Nov, 08:05 UTC	$1.24	90.92%	12
9 Nov, 01:53 UTC	$1.24	91.13%	12
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$1.23	90.97%	12
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$1.22	90.98%	12
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$1.22	90.99%	12
5 Nov, 10:39 UTC	$1.22	90.94%	12
4 Nov, 22:33 UTC	$1.22	90.87%	12
3 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$1.22	90.80%	12
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$1.22	91.11%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 0.0%restricted 4.5%classified 8.5%mil spec 40.0%Rare 17.0%industrial 30.0%best hit $197 (160.6x)