Rusty
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.11
4.45 coins
Advertised RTP
90.96%
EV $2.83 from 19 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.53%
19.1K openings, odds method
Variance
8.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 16
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
79.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 19.1K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.96%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 08:16 UTC | $3.11 | 90.96% | 19 |
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $3.12 | 90.84% | 19 |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $3.12 | 90.98% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $3.14 | 90.93% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $3.28 | 90.82% | 19 |
| 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $3.27 | 90.87% | 19 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $3.27 | 90.84% | 19 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $3.27 | 90.88% | 19 |
| 4 Nov, 14:11 UTC | $3.25 | 90.93% | 19 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $3.25 | 90.91% | 19 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.28 | 90.86% | 19 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.7%mil spec 45.2%restricted 1.5%industrial 6.5%Mythical 4.0%consumer 42.1%best hit $431 (131.9x)