Safety Net

A case on CSGORoll (40%, gloves), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$132.41

189 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $120.37 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d

103.02%

12 openings, odds method

Variance

0.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

22.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

77.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

12 openings · below min

30 days

12 openings · below min

since tracking started

12 openings · below min

63.0%103.0%143.0%

Small sample. 12 openings and 2.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	12	103.02%±39.5	—	odds
30d	12	103.02%±39.5	—	odds
All	12	103.02%±39.5	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Moto Gloves \| Eclipse (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 50	$546 780 coins	9.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary	1 in 200	$409 584 coins	1.7%	1	0.1	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 20	$310 443 coins	12.9%	1	0.6	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Arid (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 50	$286 409 coins	4.8%	0	0.2	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 20	$235 336 coins	9.8%	1	0.6	—
★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Snakebite (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 13	$191 273 coins	12.7%	0	1.0	—
★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100	$130 185 coins	1.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	20.0%	$102 145 coins	16.9%	2	2.4	0.83×
★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 20	$82.60 118 coins	3.4%	0	0.6	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	11.5%	$70.70 101 coins	6.8%	0	1.4	0.00×
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	40.0%	$63.18 90.26 coins	21.0%	7	4.8	1.46×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.