Saint Patricks Day

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$62.87

89.81 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $57.15 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.95%

4,905 openings, odds method

Variance

5.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 14

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

81.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

93.24%±24.16330 openings

7 days

92.34%±8.092,974 openings

30 days

90.95%±6.324,905 openings

since tracking started

90.95%±6.324,905 openings

68.5%93.3%118.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	330	93.24%±24.2	+0.2σ	odds
7d	2,974	92.34%±8.09	+0.3σ	odds
30d	4,905	90.95%±6.32	+0.0σ	odds
All	4,905	90.95%±6.32	+0.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,905 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$6,787 9,695 coins	1.2%	0	0.5	—
★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 3,333	$2,037 2,910 coins	1.1%	2	1.5	1.36×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 1,250	$1,282 1,832 coins	1.8%	3	3.9	0.76×
Five-SeveN \| Neon Kimono (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$452 646 coins	55.4%	364	343.4	1.06×
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 1,000	$442 631 coins	0.8%	6	4.9	1.22×
★ Falchion Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 125	$163 233 coins	2.3%	28	39.2	0.71×
★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 200	$157 224 coins	1.4%	21	24.5	0.86×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · rare	1 in 100	$122 175 coins	2.1%	47	49.1	0.96×
CZ75-Auto \| Emerald Quartz (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$105 150 coins	5.5%	122	147.2	0.83×
Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$67.04 95.77 coins	7.0%	257	294.3	0.87×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 20	$53.17 75.95 coins	4.7%	262	245.3	1.07×
SCAR-20 \| Emerald (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 11	$24.78 35.4 coins	3.9%	450	441.4	1.02×
CZ75-Auto \| Emerald (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	20.0%	$23.07 32.95 coins	8.1%	1,004	981.0	1.02×
MP9 \| Hydra (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	22.0%	$10.66 15.23 coins	4.1%	1,092	1079.1	1.01×
Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	25.5%	$1.61 2.3 coins	0.7%	1,247	1249.8	1.00×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$63.0090 coins$2,0652,950 coins32.78x7d

★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$62.8789.81 coins$2,0372,910 coins32.40x19h

★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$63.0090 coins$1,3421,917 coins21.30x7d

★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2achilles$62.8789.81 coins$1,2821,832 coins20.40x2d

★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$62.8789.81 coins$1,2821,832 coins20.40x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$62.8789.81 coins$1.612.3 coins0.03x8h

Five-SeveN | Neon Kimono (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$62.8789.81 coins$452646 coins7.19x8h

CZ75-Auto | Emerald (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$62.8789.81 coins$23.0732.95 coins0.37x8h

MP9 | Hydra (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$62.8789.81 coins$10.6615.23 coins0.17x8h

CZ75-Auto | Emerald (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$62.8789.81 coins$23.0732.95 coins0.37x8h

Dual Berettas | Cobra Strike (Factory New)weapon · classifiedBlair$62.8789.81 coins$67.0495.77 coins1.07x8h

Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$62.8789.81 coins$1.612.3 coins0.03x8h

Dual Berettas | Cobra Strike (Factory New)weapon · classified$62.8789.81 coins$67.0495.77 coins1.07x8h

CZ75-Auto | Emerald (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$62.8789.81 coins$23.0732.95 coins0.37x8h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$62.87	90.91%	15
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$62.92	90.91%	15
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$63.00	90.91%	15

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 6.5%restricted 41.5%rare 1.0%mil spec 23.0%classified 28.0%best hit $2,065 (32.78x)