Salty

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$179.17

256 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $162.88 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d

91.61%

912 openings, odds method

Variance

3.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

15.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

47 openings · below min

7 days

92.43%±13.61788 openings

30 days

91.61%±12.66912 openings

since tracking started

91.61%±12.66912 openings

50.0%106.3%162.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	47	106.40%±55.6	—	odds
7d	788	92.43%±13.6	+0.2σ	odds
30d	912	91.61%±12.7	+0.1σ	odds
All	912	91.61%±12.7	+0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 912 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Gungnir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$6,941 9,915 coins	4.3%	0	0.9	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 250	$2,167 3,095 coins	5.3%	8	3.6	2.19×
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 133	$1,865 2,665 coins	8.6%	6	6.8	0.88×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 80	$1,108 1,583 coins	8.5%	10	11.4	0.88×
Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 67	$783 1,119 coins	7.2%	13	13.7	0.95×
★ Hand Wraps \| CAUTION! (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 40	$517 739 coins	7.9%	19	22.8	0.83×
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 33	$403 575 coins	7.4%	24	27.4	0.88×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 17	$388 554 coins	14.3%	56	54.7	1.02×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 25	$331 473 coins	8.1%	41	36.5	1.12×
★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 20	$256 366 coins	7.9%	59	45.6	1.29×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	12.0%	$113 161 coins	8.3%	100	109.4	0.91×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	12.0%	$62.36 89.09 coins	4.6%	118	109.4	1.08×
USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	15.0%	$34.79 49.7 coins	3.2%	132	136.8	0.96×
Sticker \| Pimp \| Cluj-Napoca 2015sticker · high	18.5%	$25.83 36.9 coins	2.9%	168	168.7	1.00×
Patch \| Meal Timepatch · remarkable	18.0%	$13.05 18.64 coins	1.4%	158	164.2	0.96×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2$182260 coins$2,3423,345 coins12.84x3d

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2$182260 coins$2,3423,345 coins12.84x6d

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2Philiacos$182260 coins$2,3423,345 coins12.84x6d

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2$179256 coins$2,1673,095 coins12.09x43m

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2$179256 coins$2,1673,095 coins12.09x1d

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinaryTokzeen$182260 coins$1,9492,785 coins10.69x6d

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinaryTahaguy$182260 coins$1,9492,785 coins10.69x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Patch | Meal Timepatch · remarkable$179256 coins$13.0518.64 coins0.07x41m

USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covertJhon csgoroll.com$179256 coins$62.3689.09 coins0.35x41m

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2$179256 coins$2,1673,095 coins12.09x43m

★ Flip Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covertJhon csgoroll.com$179256 coins$256366 coins1.43x43m

Patch | Meal Timepatch · remarkable$179256 coins$13.0518.64 coins0.07x19h

M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$179256 coins$113161 coins0.63x19h

USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$179256 coins$62.3689.09 coins0.35x19h

★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · RubyLars$179256 coins$388554 coins2.16x19h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$179	90.91%	15
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$182	90.91%	15
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$182	90.91%	15

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 60.3%extraordinary 0.8%legendary 2.5%high 18.5%remarkable 18.0%best hit $2,342 (12.84x)