Sanctuary

A case on CSGORoll (40%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$46.46

66.37 coins

Advertised RTP

90.90%

EV $42.23 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d

93.96%

780 openings, odds method

Variance

0.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

25.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

60.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

42 openings · below min

7 days

93.01%±6.79629 openings

30 days

93.96%±6.10780 openings

since tracking started

93.96%±6.10780 openings

57.5%84.3%111.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	42	84.16%±26.0	—	odds
7d	629	93.01%±6.79	+0.6σ	odds
30d	780	93.96%±6.10	+1.0σ	odds
All	780	93.96%±6.10	+1.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 780 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 286	$378 540 coins	3.1%	4	2.7	1.47×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 667	$304 434 coins	1.1%	4	1.2	3.42×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 667	$283 404 coins	1.0%	2	1.2	1.71×
★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Guerrilla (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100	$199 284 coins	4.7%	8	7.8	1.03×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 286	$118 168 coins	1.0%	1	2.7	0.37×
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Factory New)weapon · covert	10.0%	$86.10 123 coins	20.4%	63	78.0	0.81×
★ Hand Wraps \| Badlands (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100	$82.60 118 coins	2.0%	13	7.8	1.67×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Cold Blooded (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	12.0%	$68.92 98.46 coins	19.6%	106	93.6	1.13×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 40	$65.53 93.61 coins	3.9%	21	19.5	1.08×
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 40	$63.18 90.26 coins	3.7%	19	19.5	0.97×
★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert	10.0%	$61.54 87.92 coins	14.6%	69	78.0	0.88×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · classified	20.0%	$23.30 33.28 coins	11.0%	148	156.0	0.95×
CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Factory New)weapon · classified	20.0%	$20.01 28.59 coins	9.5%	172	156.0	1.10×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Briefing (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	20.0%	$9.45 13.5 coins	4.5%	150	156.0	0.96×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Briefing (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil specMiltsukkaaaw :3$46.4666.37 coins$9.4513.5 coins0.20x1h

StatTrak™ P90 | Cold Blooded (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified$46.4666.37 coins$68.9298.46 coins1.48x1h

CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Factory New)weapon · classified$46.4666.37 coins$20.0128.59 coins0.43x3h

MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New)weapon · covert$46.4666.37 coins$86.10123 coins1.85x3h

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Guerrilla (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$46.4666.37 coins$199284 coins4.28x3h

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Briefing (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$46.4666.37 coins$9.4513.5 coins0.20x8h

Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · classified$46.4666.37 coins$23.3033.28 coins0.50x13h

CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Factory New)weapon · classifiedtrae$46.4666.37 coins$20.0128.59 coins0.43x13h

★ Navaja Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert$46.4666.37 coins$61.5487.92 coins1.32x14h

StatTrak™ P90 | Cold Blooded (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified$46.4666.37 coins$68.9298.46 coins1.48x14h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$46.46	90.90%	14
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$46.54	90.91%	14
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$46.49	90.91%	14

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedrestricted 0.4%covert 23.2%extraordinary 4.5%classified 52.0%mil spec 20.0%best hit —