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A case on CSGORoll (40%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$128.84
184 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $117.12 from 18 items
Observed RTP, 30d
37.54%
16 openings, odds method
Variance
1.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 16 openings and 2.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedhellsten05$131188 coins$10.2114.58 coins0.08x
★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · SapphireL3MON™ csgoroll.com$131188 coins$243347 coins1.85x
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1L3MON™ csgoroll.com$131188 coins$116166 coins0.89x
AK-47 | Slate (Factory New)weapon · restrictedL3MON™ csgoroll.com$131188 coins$14.0420.06 coins0.11x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $129 | 90.91% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $129 | 90.91% | 18 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $131 | 90.91% | 18 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 33.7%classified 0.4%extraordinary 0.4%legendary 1.0%rare 4.5%restricted 60.0%best hit —