Science
A case on CSGORoll (40%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$29.97
42.82 coins
Advertised RTP
90.90%
EV $27.25 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.53%
337 openings, odds method
Variance
1.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
72.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 337 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Sticker | Ocean Sunset Flick (Holo)sticker · remarkableMiltsukkaaaw :3$29.9742.82 coins$5.557.93 coins0.19x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$29.9742.82 coins$8.1511.64 coins0.27x
Galil AR | Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedmos´ez$29.9742.82 coins$49.0670.09 coins1.64x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $29.97 | 90.90% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $30.54 | 90.90% | 14 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $30.28 | 90.90% | 14 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.3%classified 24.9%covert 14.9%mil spec 20.0%high 20.0%remarkable 20.0%best hit —