Scrapyard
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.72
5.32 coins
Advertised RTP
90.89%
EV $3.38 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.05%
14.1K openings, odds method
Variance
2.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
13.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14.1K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
M249 | Jungle DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerAxiomatic csgoroll.com$3.725.32 coins$2.874.1 coins0.77x
PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedAxiomatic csgoroll.com$3.725.32 coins$0.801.14 coins0.21x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.89%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $3.72 | 90.89% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 14:08 UTC | $3.72 | 90.84% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $3.72 | 90.86% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $3.72 | 90.98% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $3.72 | 90.86% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $3.74 | 90.94% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $3.74 | 90.92% | 12 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $3.76 | 90.96% | 12 |
| 3 Nov, 07:26 UTC | $3.76 | 90.90% | 12 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.74 | 90.93% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%restricted 28.0%classified 12.0%consumer 10.0%mil spec 35.0%Mythical 14.9%best hit —