Seance
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$29.20
41.71 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $26.54 from 19 items
Observed RTP, 30d
96.30%
620 openings, odds method
Variance
1.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
19.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
77.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 620 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$29.4642.08 coins$565807 coins19.18x
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir P90 | Teardown (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec$29.2041.71 coins$13.2618.94 coins0.45x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert$29.2041.71 coins$74.20106 coins2.54x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $29.20 | 90.91% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $29.42 | 90.91% | 19 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $29.46 | 90.91% | 19 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 7.0%covert 15.8%extraordinary 3.0%classified 7.4%mil spec 28.5%high 13.0%pink 25.2%best hit $565 (19.18x)