Serenade
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$4.52
6.46 coins
Advertised RTP
90.95%
EV $4.11 from 15 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.84%
4,310 openings, odds method
Variance
1.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
44.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
55.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,322 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Afterimage (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedRusty Cake$4.526.46 coins$52.1174.44 coins11.52x
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Shinobu (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon$4.526.46 coins$6.419.15 coins1.42x
Sticker | Mood Ring Strafe (Holo)sticker · remarkableAlienVPredatorVPlessyVFerguson$4.526.46 coins$5.948.49 coins1.31x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.95%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $4.52 | 90.95% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $4.62 | 90.86% | 15 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.62 | 90.88% | 15 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%mil spec 0.0%rare 5.6%classified 0.2%uncommon 47.9%restricted 0.5%pink 0.0%remarkable 19.6%common 26.0%best hit —