Serotonin
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$104.41
149 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $94.92 from 15 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.24%
1,790 openings, odds method
Variance
7.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
22.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
60.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,790 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ USP-S | Caiman (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified$104149 coins$38.4054.86 coins0.37x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $104 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $106 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 3 Nov, 15:54 UTC | $108 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $108 | 90.91% | 15 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedbase 0.0%covert 28.6%mil spec 28.4%classified 12.0%industrial 31.0%best hit $635 (5.86x)